Cardinals Acquiring Nolan Arenado

[bpj]

Yeah you mean like how LeMahieu's extreme home and away splits showed how he couldn't hit outside Coors. It really could be as much about Coors making it hard to hit on the road as it is about being easy to hit at Coors. Arendo is a great ballplayer, right up there with best today, Cards got a deal on him, though he probably opts out.

Look at his low strikeout rate and isolated power, he will do fine for the Cards


https://www.mlb.com/rockies/news/nolan- ... t-analysis

.711 OPS in 2021. In NEW YORK.

Oof.

[bpj]

2020 is pretty irrelevant, and good points on his other seasons splits.

Hitters typically struggle their first year changing teams (another reason I'm opposed to the wait to acquire talent until the time to contend is here strategy). Same reason I would personally focus on pitching in trade. They don't generally have down years their first year in a new org.

All things considered, I'd put Arenado between .775 and .825 OPS on the season. I wouldn't pony up prospects and $25M for him, but you do make good points about his skewed splits, something to keep an eye on and makes him more attractive than given the career splits.

.806

[Donn Beach]

Yeah you mean like how LeMahieu's extreme home and away splits showed how he couldn't hit outside Coors. It really could be as much about Coors making it hard to hit on the road as it is about being easy to hit at Coors. Arendo is a great ballplayer, right up there with best today, Cards got a deal on him, though he probably opts out.

Look at his low strikeout rate and isolated power, he will do fine for the Cards


https://www.mlb.com/rockies/news/nolan- ... t-analysis

.711 OPS in 2021. In NEW YORK.

Oof.

three years removed...how about last season's 1.011 OPS, where that come from?

[bpj]

Yeah you mean like how LeMahieu's extreme home and away splits showed how he couldn't hit outside Coors. It really could be as much about Coors making it hard to hit on the road as it is about being easy to hit at Coors. Arendo is a great ballplayer, right up there with best today, Cards got a deal on him, though he probably opts out.

Look at his low strikeout rate and isolated power, he will do fine for the Cards


https://www.mlb.com/rockies/news/nolan- ... t-analysis

.711 OPS in 2021. In NEW YORK.

Oof.

three years removed...how about last season's 1.011 OPS, where that come from?

Probably PED's in a contract year.

Goes to a .711 OPS after signing a 6/$90M contract. I dunno man.

Nobody denied he would hit some in NY. The Mariners not going after him in free agency last offseason, like some people wanted, was the LeMahieu topic of conversation.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=3866#p74050
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Great non-signing.

[ice99]

Cardinals gave up a young pitcher, one top-10 prospect and 2 nobodies.

$50 million sent over by the Rockies making his contract worth around $25 million a year. He has opt-out options in 2021 and 2022 so it's a bit risky...

But man, this is what great organizations do to quickly make themselves better.

Arenado is going to hit for a .900+ OPS and play GG caliber D.

I really hope some day it could actually be fun to be a Mariners fan... imagine you're a Cardinals fan and you hear Nolan Arenado is coming to town?

I'd take the under on that bet.

Arenado had an away OPS of .832 from 2015-2019... he had an .866 OPS away in 2019... his career away numbers were seriously dragged down by rough rookie and sophomore campaigns... players generally hit a lot better at home and I'd be pretty shocked if all of a sudden his numbers fall off a cliff.

A lot of really good players struggled in what was a weird 2020...

I'm inclined, like you, to remove the stats before he was 25. Arenado has an away OPS of .838 from 2015-2021 too.

I didn't notice that this was from earlier this year. It seems like a good trade. It could be a burden the last one or two years, but that's the penalty you pay for the production in the first few years. I wouldn't have said that he was going to have a .900+ OPS.

Oh, I see now. LeMahieu's away OPS is much worse than Arenado. His away OPS from 2015-2020 is .715.

[bpj]

Arenado is a guy who has been a product of his home park in my opinion.

The guy hits. 200 OPS higher at home than on the road for his career.

In 2020 he had an OPS in road games of .636

By comparison, Mallex Smiths 2019 he had a .635 OPS.

That's a risky acquisition at $150M over 6 years imo.

The Cardinals are a pretty smart organization, maybe they see the problem.

My guess is Arenado becomes a big disappointment for them. They've got themselves a $150M player that is a cumulative .800 OPS guy going forward imo. There aren't many of those. In a bad way.

Career and 2020 OPS splits below:

Said this before last season started, given the same concerns that are apparent with Story. Arenado finished the season with an .807 OPS.

[Sexymarinersfan]

Put up a 4.1 WAR season too. I'll gladly take that at second base!

[bpj]

Put up a 4.1 WAR season too. I'll gladly take that at second base!

Getting a 4 war player, paying for a 6. Good luck with that.

[Sexymarinersfan]

Put up a 4.1 WAR season too. I'll gladly take that at second base!

Getting a 4 war player, paying for a 6. Good luck with that.

We don't know what the numbers are yet. Once they come in, then we can dissect it.

[DavidGee24]

Put up a 4.1 WAR season too. I'll gladly take that at second base!

Getting a 4 war player, paying for a 6. Good luck with that.

At 35 million I'd say six is being kind. Someone making that dough should be about an eight.