Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

[Sexymarinersfan]

I tried to come up with a B. Reynolds trade and couldn't even do it and he is only at $59M. Acuna is almost $100M. Ford + Brash only = ~$25M. Not even close.

I said "plus more". Of course Brash and Ford aren't going to get the deal done. You'd be a fool to think so. Unless you plan on stripping you're MLB roster. So that's where you start.

Anyone on here wanna make a $100 wager that thinks Acuna is on the roster come ST 2023?

[Seattle or Bust]

I tried to come up with a B. Reynolds trade and couldn't even do it and he is only at $59M. Acuna is almost $100M. Ford + Brash only = ~$25M. Not even close.

I think MLBTV overvalues what Reynolds is worth and undervalues prospects they'd take in a trade for him.

The rumor was that when the M's were in talks with the Pirates over what it would take to get him... Hancock was the centerpiece of a deal. Hancock is not worth a mere $6.6 million in trade value that MLBTV gives him.

He threw 98 innings last year injury free. He had an ERA of like 2.10 through 15 starts and then struggled in his final 5 starts. He flashed 96-98 all year and dominated in the Futures Game. He's a former top-10 pick.

He's likely seen in much higher regard than the website is giving him.

A similar comp:

In March of last year, the Twins traded Sonny Gray to the Reds* for prospect Chase Petty. Petty was worth $4.8 million according to the website and Gray was worth $28.3 million. Petty was a 1st round pick in the 2021 draft.

[Sexymarinersfan]

I tried to come up with a B. Reynolds trade and couldn't even do it and he is only at $59M. Acuna is almost $100M. Ford + Brash only = ~$25M. Not even close.

I think MLBTV overvalues what Reynolds is worth and undervalues prospects they'd take in a trade for him.

The rumor was that when the M's were in talks with the Pirates over what it would take to get him... Hancock was the centerpiece of a deal. Hancock is not worth a mere $6.6 million in trade value that MLBTV gives him.

He threw 98 innings last year injury free. He had an ERA of like 2.10 through 15 starts and then struggled in his final 5 starts. He flashed 96-98 all year and dominated in the Futures Game. He's a former top-10 pick.

He's likely seen in much higher regard than the website is giving him.

A similar comp:

In March of last year, the Twins traded Sonny Gray to the Twins for prospect Chase Petty. Petty was worth $4.8 million according to the website and Gray was worth $28.3 million. Petty was a 1st round pick in the 2021 draft.

I'd wait and try and build up Hancock's innings at the MLB level and watch his value skyrocket, and then flip him before another serious injury occurs. Emerson scares me just about as much as Danny Hultzen's rehab assignments.

[Sexymarinersfan]

I'm still team "sign a big name hitter!" but I'm also open to a bunch of second or third tier moves that help fill the gaps. The demand for Judge, Nimmo, Ace Pitchers, and the SSes is pretty high among our fellow contenders and unless we significantly outbid LA, Philly, New York, etc., we may miss out.The youngish core of Julio, Cal, pitchers, JP and Ty (to a little smaller but still significant extent, anyway) is solidifying nicely. I'd be pretty happy with Benintendi (or one of Mitch/Profar) and Sengal signings plus a trade for a decent 2B with some club control. It's not as fun as signing Bogaerts to 7/160 or whatever but it fills a lot of holes and we still have money in the bank to extend more of the young core/pay arbitration salaries down the line.

I think 1B/DH FA market is one they can lengthen their lineup at a cost effective way. I'd even add Mancini as an option (even though he was bad for the Astros) as another option though would be well below the other 3 names mentioned.

Unfortunately I just don't think that is how the Mariners FO want to build a roster.

I think Julio is top 3 MVP next year, with a Trout like leap in WAR year 2. I could see more home runs, less stolen bases, more doubles, less walks.

Haniger is the best value at the corner OF position right now, so he's also a solid pick to bring back. If they do that, I'd like to see an additional get for LF, maybe something like a Teoscar Hernandez via trade. If that doesn't materialize, then they probably need to upgrade the rotation and bullpen a bit in addition to Haniger. Could also grab a David Peralta or again Jurickson Profar type if desperate.

[Optimistic Ms Fan]

I know I'll get ridiculed since its not based on "fair value" but I wonder what a package of Kelenic, Brash, Ford, Hancock and Murfee would look like to ATL for him?

[Optimistic Ms Fan]

Re-sign Haniger back for 3-35 ish and an outfield of Julio, Acuna and haniger..... nice to dream

[D-train]

So Arkins does a pretty nice job summarizing these 5 OF trade targets but then when he ranks them he goes with Gurriel 2nd (he hit 5 HRs and just had wrist surgery) and Reynolds dead LAST. How does this guy's brain work.

https://prospectinsider.com/mariners-tr ... -reynolds/

[D-train]

Re-sign Haniger back for 3-35 ish and an outfield of Julio, Acuna and haniger..... nice to dream

Three years of a mid 30s injury prone OFer with limited D who put up a low 700s OPS is a nightmare imo

[D-train]

I know I'll get ridiculed since its not based on "fair value" but I wonder what a package of Kelenic, Brash, Ford, Hancock and Murfee would look like to ATL for him?

That would get you Acuna's right arm, left leg and maybe his ass but that's about it.

[Seattle or Bust]

If the M's can trade for a Bryan Reynolds and Tim Anderson + sign say, Conforto and Senga?... I'd have no problem at all with that being the off season. You offer an extension to Reynolds on arrival, raises your payroll, but also gives you the flexibility to add more in years to come.

1. Anderson 2B
2. France 1B
3. Reynolds LF
4. Julio CF
5. Conforto RF
6. Geno 3B
7. Raleigh/Murphy
8. Winker/Lewis? DH
9. JP SS

Trade for Anderson: Harry Ford + Bryce Miller + Dylan Moore + Diego Castillo + Chris Flexen

Trade for Reynolds: Emerson Hancock + Gabriel Gonzales + Jarred Kelenic + Adam Macko

Deal for Reynolds: 5 year extension starting post his arb years, $115 million.

Deal for Conforto: 2 years, $34 million.

Deal for Senga: 5 years, $75 million

You've added $55ish million in payroll for the next 2 seasons. $31 million comes off the books by letting Conforto and Anderson walk in '25. $16 million is added per year when Reynolds contract kicks in. By 2025... the M's should have a clearer picture our the middle infield with Felnin Celesten, Michael Arroyo, and Cole Young likely approaching AA ball. You'll also be more prepared to manage the rising arb numbers of Kirby, Gilbert, Raleigh and France.

This is quite literally the Houston Astros model... trade for veterans from teams that want to offload contracts. Let them walk when their deal is up. Pay the core as they rise through the system. Sign smaller, but impactful FA's to shorter term deals.