Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

[Big_Maple]

Like every team the Mariners have room for improvement. However, a free agent hitter is likely to see a drop in production with Seattle (and may be less likely to sign with the M's for that reason).

Move the outfield fences in by 30 feet.

Then go sign Judge.

[harmony]

Like every team the Mariners have room for improvement. However, a free agent hitter is likely to see a drop in production with Seattle (and may be less likely to sign with the M's for that reason).

Move the outfield fences in by 30 feet.

Then go sign Judge.

Mariner pitchers would not welcome that change.

[Pharmabro]

So the talk has shifted to Conforto. The previous was Nimmo-Benentendi. Conforto is a strange one. He has been a really good player: 124 OPS+ career but had the 2021 walk year blues with a 100 OPS+. 2022 he took off but looked around at offers to be a DH only down the stretch and decided not to sign. He was hitting during this period but recently started throwing and according to rotowire should be able to be put in the OF.
My issue is how in the hell do you put a value on the guy?

A comparison
Another one of my thoughts has been:

2B/OF trade target Brandon Lowe previous 4 years 112 to 154 OPS+ 2022 102 OPS+
What is his value
MIn 16M for 23-24 11M options to follow. ANd on the trade value calc he is valued near the Minnie 2B, around 2M
Trade Flex, Ford, Deloach and a few million? Whatever.

But we have Winker who I have seen just DFA him as a direction, trade and pay to get rid of him, etc but he was coming off of a 143 OPS+ and a 139 OPS+ the previous 2 years. All sorts of changes happened he was a top 3 hitter vs RHP and he reversed splits? He had elevated launch angle, etc, etc but still had a 103 OPS+

I think they are all really good hitters coming off a bad year and that bad year was a couple of notches above league average.

Sign Conforto? He can't be expecting big guarantee or long term He had a down year and a year off. So, give him the Mitch deal. Something like 7.5M plus incentives up to 15M, and based on earning those kicking in a 2nd year at 17M and an opt out or future years.

Winker we have and I expect a rebound. The league switch, the injuries, the alterations in profile. His age point to it being a blip and not a blop.

Lowe: He is an MVP vote getter at peak years and is a lefty hitter. Between the three we should be pretty sure at least 2/3 are productive middle type hitters as their baseball cards show. Lowe is cost controlled 5.3-6.3 (1M buy out and then 2X 11M options

I think with the cost controlled Lowe, Conforto, and just giving Winker a prove it year to rebound we could be in play for dropping both (Marco, and Flex) and bringing in another Ace( Senga, Verlander, Rodon, Degrom)
Rosterbation
1. JRod CF 150 OPS+
2. *B. Lowe 2B 130 OPS+
3. France 1B 125 OPS+
4. *Conforto OF 124 OPS+
5. Teo OF 121 OPS+
6. **Cal C 122 OPS+
7. Saurez 3B 129 OPS+
8. *Winker DH 124 OPS+
9. *JP SS 100 OPS+

Bench
Best/Healthy of
C Murphy/Hummel
UT Moore/Haggerty
OF JK/TT/Marlowe

Some of the guys I went with career averages: Some I went with 2022 JP is 100 vs 95, Teo has a 121 career vs a 127 in 2022.
M's current payout 141M + 5.3M for Lowe, 7.5M ConfortoX2 for performance, so something like 154M with that line-up.

And signing that big upgrade: If it is Senga it is supposed to be 15M per: 169M But what if we decided on more for a sure thing like Rodon @ 25M per or Verlander/Degrom at 40+?
Degrom 3X45M Guarantees with opt outs after 2 and options, etc. He is one of the Ace of Aces types
Rotation:
1. DeGrom 155 ERA+ career
2. Castillo 125 ERA+ career
3. Ray 109 ERA+ career
4. Gilbert 116 ERA+
5. Kirby 109 ERA+

Death Star

[Big_Maple]

Mariner pitchers would not welcome that change.

Talk about the politician's dilemma - can't make all the people happy all of the time.

[Sexymarinersfan]

Mariners' agenda for Winter Meetings after early moves

https://www.mlb.com/news/mariners-winte ... eview-2022

[Sexymarinersfan]

Rosenthal: What I’m hearing on the MLB free-agent market with the Padres, Mariners, and Astros and more



A three-year, $58.5 million contract seemed high for free-agent first baseman José Abreu, who turns 36 on Jan. 29. The Athletic’s Keith Law criticized the Astros for paying him that much. But the competition for Abreu, according to major-league sources and media reports, perhaps explains how, even at an advanced age, he exceeded his previous three-year, $50 million deal with the White Sox.

The Padres and Guardians also made Abreu three-year offers. The Red Sox considered him their top outside priority, though the size of their offer was not known. The Marlins were in the mix, as were the Cubs and Rays. Other teams might have been involved as well.

• As The Athletic’s Dennis Lin wrote, the Padres have every reason to take a measured approach this offseason, seeking to add depth more than star power. But some in the industry believe general manager A.J. Preller will follow his usual formula, and at least attempt to do something big.

Abreu appealed to the Padres and other clubs in part because he was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer after getting one from the White Sox (and accepting it) in 2019. The Padres, after exceeding the luxury-tax threshold last season, would forfeit a second- and fifth-round pick, as well as $1 million from their international signing bonus pool for signing a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer — Xander Bogaerts, for example. Such a penalty would be especially painful for a San Diego team that depleted its farm system at the deadline with trades for Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Josh Hader and Brandon Drury.

The obvious course for the Padres, then, would be to find a first base/DH type to fill the role projected for Abreu, plus another starting pitcher and bullpen and bench help. But Preller, as first reported by the New York Post, is exploring the shortstop market. Perhaps his inquiries are simply the routine due diligence GMs perform at this time of year. But according to major-league sources, Preller recently asked Bogaerts’ agent, Scott Boras, whether the shortstop would be willing to play other infield positions. Others say Preller, like pretty much every other GM, fancies Trea Turner, too.

Bogaerts would make particular sense for the Padres if he was willing to play first base or second short-term, then possibly move to third if Manny Machado opts out after next season. Soto, meanwhile, could leave as a free agent after 2024, potentially creating another offensive void.

The Padres, after re-signing pitchers Robert Suárez and Nick Martinez, moved within $1 million of the first luxury-tax threshold according to Fangraphs. They’re already all-in. The only question is how far they will go.

Whatever the Padres do, they need to figure out where to play Fernando Tatis Jr., who will be coming off multiple wrist surgeries, a shoulder operation and an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs that ends on April 20.

Ha-Seong Kim emerged as a top defensive shortstop last season, ranking among the top eight at the position in both Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved. Of the free-agent shortstops, only Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson are comparable defensively.

The Padres were talking about playing Tatis in center before he was suspended. He also can fill a void in left if free agent Jurickson Profar signs with another club, or right if the Padres move Soto back to his original position. Second base could be another option, with Jake Cronenworth moving to first.

Much depends, obviously, on what the Padres accomplish this offseason.

• The Astros are in discussions with free agent Willson Contreras and plan to meet with him at the winter meetings, according to a source briefed on the situation.

Astros owner Jim Crane quashed a Jośe Urquidy-for-Contreras trade at the deadline, as first reported by ESPN. But the circumstances are different now.

Rather than Urquidy, Contreras would cost the Astros their second-highest draft pick and $500,000 from their international bonus pool. Contreras, meanwhile, would not need to worry about losing playing time in the middle of his walk year.

The Astros like Contreras in part because he can play left field, particularly at Minute Maid Park, which has the second-smallest left field in the majors after Fenway Park. Most of Contreras’ limited time in left was in 2016, his rookie season. But in theory, he could alternate with Yordan Alvarez in left and at DH while also catching on occasion.

The question is whether Contreras, 30, still would want to be paid like a catcher while playing a less significant defensive role.

• Cardinals GM John Mozeliak, in a telephone conversation Tuesday, made it clear the team’s No. 1 priority is acquiring an everyday catcher. Asked about the possibility of adding a shortstop, Mozeliak said, “Tommy Edman is a very, very good shortstop.”

Mozeliak allowed that a change in the marketplace could prompt him to adjust at short, but it’s doubtful he could strike a bargain in free agency or in a trade. As for the outfield, Mozeliak said the Cardinals have numerous options, describing top prospect Jordan Walker “as the biggest wild card.” He did not rule out a veteran addition, but such a player likely would be a backup behind Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar.

• Shortly after the season ended, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto told reporters his preference would be to land a shortstop who would be willing to play second base. But considering the expected prices for the big four shortstops, the Mariners are more likely to pursue a left-handed hitting second baseman who can platoon with Dylan Moore, as well as a right-handed hitting outfielder.

The Brewers’ Kolten Wong, earning $10 million, is one option at second, but the Mariners also could pursue more affordable options who would remain with the team longer. The Rays, for example, feature three such youngsters — Jonathan Aranda and switch-hitters Taylor Walls and Vidal Bruján — as well as Brandon Lowe, who is under club control through 2026 at a below-market salary. Lowe, however, appeared in only 65 games last season due to back and triceps injuries, so the Rays would be selling low.

• Speaking of the Rays, they always check in on the top of the market, so it’s not exactly a surprise they have made contact with Jacob deGrom, the best pitcher available in free agency. It’s also not exactly a surprise that club officials are pessimistic about their chances, knowing deGrom’s average annual value is expected to exceed $40 million in a deal of at least three years.

Such an amount would represent about half the Rays’ club-record $83.9 million payroll in 2022, and they’re already at an estimated $67.7 million for 2023. Still, they will occasionally splurge, in their own way. They will pay Tyler Glasnow $25 million in 2024, the second year of his two-year extension. They also offered Freddie Freeman two deals last offseason in free agency, according to ESPN — six years, $140 million or seven years, $150 million.

Their appeal to deGrom could include the opportunity to pitch in his native Florida, a state that does not charge income tax, as well as the chance to work under one of the game’s top pitching coaches, Kyle Snyder. But other teams almost certainly would be willing to pay considerably more.

SNY.com first reported the Rays’ interest in deGrom.

• The Mets recently re-assigned amateur scouting director Marc Tramuta, making him a high-level evaluator who will work in both the amateur and international markets. The team, which has not yet announced the move, currently is conducting an interview process, but one club source expects a promotion from within.

Tramuta joined the Mets as an assistant scouting director in 2012, and became their amateur scouting director in December 2016. His first-round picks included left-hander David Peterson, third baseman/outfielder Brett Baty, outfielder Jarred Kelenic (traded for Edwin Díaz/Robinson Canó), outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (traded for Javier Báez) and pitcher Kumar Rocker (whom the Mets did not sign).

A Mets official declined comment when asked about Tramuta, saying the team does not discuss employee-related matters.

https://theathletic.com/3951194/2022/11 ... es-astros/

And yet....It’s vague but also indicative of where things stand. The free-agent market has been unsurprisingly slow to develop. After returning from Thanksgiving, perhaps trade traction will heat up after Dipoto noted recently that nothing there “is particularly close.” The club has clear needs and a track record in how to address them, and it will certainly make more impact moves. But the burning question is what and when?

Glad to know that the other teams are out there doing shit.

[Pharmabro]

I looked it up the M's would lose the third highest pick from signing a free agent who rejected their offer. With Julio getting what is basically a late 1st that means the M's would lose their 2nd rd. pick

and MLBTR has the Rays talking to DeGrom?

[Sexymarinersfan]

I looked it up the M's would lose the third highest pick from signing a free agent who rejected their offer. With Julio getting what is basically a late 1st that means the M's would lose their 2nd rd. pick

and MLBTR has the Rays talking to DeGrom?

I wonder how much of it he would have to defer. LOL!

[D-train]

[GL_Storm]

If the Phillies do sign one of the 4SS, will they look to trade Bryson Stott?