Seahawks trading up to #3?!!

[Sexymarinersfan]

Unless Arizona stays put and takes Anderson. Then you're guaranteed a QB.

nope, then you're guaranteed we trade down.

Respectfully disagree

[auroraave]

Unless Arizona stays put and takes Anderson. Then you're guaranteed a QB.

nope, then you're guaranteed we trade down.

Respectfully disagree

I think Seattler is looking to trade back to lower the cap hit on their first pick - they are in a tight space. The upside is they can trade back, still have a high-level pick, and acquire draft capitol for next year. I think Seattle is doing what they did when Pete and JS took over - completely turning the roster over within three years for a run of success. I personally would prefer the carter over anderson because he can wreak havoc in the middle, which is more important IMO than edge rushing. That said, there seems to be quality later in the draft foir interior, thus making the 5th pick more valuable as a chip to play and add draft capitol across two seasons, rather than the value of using on the 5th pick. Helps alleviate the salary cap burden and adds bulk to the idea of turning over most of the roster within a three year window - which we saw before yielded huge results.

[Captain 97]

I just don't get the hype on Carter. I have watched his highlight reel and don't see anything that blows me away. His stats are mundane and the guy isn't even athletic enough to finish his drills at his own pro day. I don't want him. If Anderson is gone at 5, I would rather trade down.

[Cascade Kid]

nope, then you're guaranteed we trade down.

Respectfully disagree

I think Seattler is looking to trade back to lower the cap hit on their first pick - they are in a tight space. The upside is they can trade back, still have a high-level pick, and acquire draft capitol for next year. I think Seattle is doing what they did when Pete and JS took over - completely turning the roster over within three years for a run of success. I personally would prefer the carter over anderson because he can wreak havoc in the middle, which is more important IMO than edge rushing. That said, there seems to be quality later in the draft foir interior, thus making the 5th pick more valuable as a chip to play and add draft capitol across two seasons, rather than the value of using on the 5th pick. Helps alleviate the salary cap burden and adds bulk to the idea of turning over most of the roster within a three year window - which we saw before yielded huge results.

More players will be released post-draft. It will depend on who they were able to pick up. For instance, if they draft QB then Lock could very well be released or traded. Same goes for Mone, if the Hawks draft DT. I could also see Nwosu getting restructured and extended since he's on his final year.

[SeattleAddict]

nope, then you're guaranteed we trade down.

Respectfully disagree

I think Seattler is looking to trade back to lower the cap hit on their first pick - they are in a tight space. The upside is they can trade back, still have a high-level pick, and acquire draft capitol for next year. I think Seattle is doing what they did when Pete and JS took over - completely turning the roster over within three years for a run of success. I personally would prefer the carter over anderson because he can wreak havoc in the middle, which is more important IMO than edge rushing. That said, there seems to be quality later in the draft foir interior, thus making the 5th pick more valuable as a chip to play and add draft capitol across two seasons, rather than the value of using on the 5th pick. Helps alleviate the salary cap burden and adds bulk to the idea of turning over most of the roster within a three year window - which we saw before yielded huge results.

The cap space thing isn't really an issue unless they sign more free agents. The effective cap space that you see running close to the edge INCLUDES the projected draft pick salaries. Trading back doesn't gain much, since they'd be adding more picks, thus more salary that cancels out a good portion of the savings. Now, of course there are options to that - like trading for picks next year, trading back up, or including players, but I don't think that will be a big factor in why they'll trade down. They'll trade down because their guy isn't there at 5, and their second choice will probably be there at 9 or 12 or whatever and more importantly, there are a lot of quality guys in positions of need that should be around in the 2nd and 3rd, and adding to those picks could be hugely valuable.

[D-train]

Hot Stacy with a good look at the possibilities. Imagine being with a woman this good looking and this into football. Twilight zone.

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1750955/ ... no-5-pick/

[Sexymarinersfan]

nope, then you're guaranteed we trade down.

Respectfully disagree

I think Seattler is looking to trade back to lower the cap hit on their first pick - they are in a tight space. The upside is they can trade back, still have a high-level pick, and acquire draft capitol for next year. I think Seattle is doing what they did when Pete and JS took over - completely turning the roster over within three years for a run of success. I personally would prefer the carter over anderson because he can wreak havoc in the middle, which is more important IMO than edge rushing. That said, there seems to be quality later in the draft foir interior, thus making the 5th pick more valuable as a chip to play and add draft capitol across two seasons, rather than the value of using on the 5th pick. Helps alleviate the salary cap burden and adds bulk to the idea of turning over most of the roster within a three year window - which we saw before yielded huge results.

He can't even wreak havoc on his Pro Day!

[Sexymarinersfan]

Respectfully disagree

I think Seattler is looking to trade back to lower the cap hit on their first pick - they are in a tight space. The upside is they can trade back, still have a high-level pick, and acquire draft capitol for next year. I think Seattle is doing what they did when Pete and JS took over - completely turning the roster over within three years for a run of success. I personally would prefer the carter over anderson because he can wreak havoc in the middle, which is more important IMO than edge rushing. That said, there seems to be quality later in the draft foir interior, thus making the 5th pick more valuable as a chip to play and add draft capitol across two seasons, rather than the value of using on the 5th pick. Helps alleviate the salary cap burden and adds bulk to the idea of turning over most of the roster within a three year window - which we saw before yielded huge results.

The cap space thing isn't really an issue unless they sign more free agents. The effective cap space that you see running close to the edge INCLUDES the projected draft pick salaries. Trading back doesn't gain much, since they'd be adding more picks, thus more salary that cancels out a good portion of the savings. Now, of course there are options to that - like trading for picks next year, trading back up, or including players, but I don't think that will be a big factor in why they'll trade down. They'll trade down because their guy isn't there at 5, and their second choice will probably be there at 9 or 12 or whatever and more importantly, there are a lot of quality guys in positions of need that should be around in the 2nd and 3rd, and adding to those picks could be hugely valuable.

As we edge closer to the draft, we’re starting to see a consensus among prognosticators. Todd McShay, Lance Zierlein, Daniel Jeremiah, Mike Renner and others have the Seahawks picking Jalen Carter at #5.

Earlier today I watched this video featuring Mike Florio and Chris Simms, discussing Seattle’s options. They concluded Carter would be the pick in Seattle and that a quarterback wouldn’t be.

It’s always best to avoid guaranteeing things will or won’t happen. You can never be 100% sure. Usually it’s a surefire way to end up with egg on your face, writing an article explaining why you got things so emphatically wrong. I’m always happy to admit when I’ve called something poorly, with my Geno Smith video last year a good example of that.

That said, I’m not going to need to do a Jalen Carter video. I’m comfortable saying he won’t be Seattle’s pick at #5. Book it. Put it in ink.

I’m not 100% sure. I am 99.5% sure, though.

Regulars will be bored of me talking about this. Trust me, I’m bored too. I’m going to go over a lot of old ground again here. Yet with the majority of high-profile mocks pairing Seattle with Carter recently, I think it’s worth returning to this subject.

I’ll start by saying I appreciate why this projection keeps being made. Pete Carroll and John Schneider have developed reputations as risk takers. They’ve taken big swings. They’ve made controversial moves, most notably drafting Frank Clark.

I understand why someone who doesn’t follow the Seahawks religiously would conclude that Carter to Seattle makes sense. Good ol’ Pete will be prepared to take a shot. He’ll coach him up and get him going. No problemo.

This isn’t reflective of where the Seahawks are at, though. In the case of Carter, I also doubt they’ll want to take on this particular challenge.

We’ve heard a few times now that the Seahawks last year renewed their commitment to character when it comes to drafting. The words ‘without compromise’ have been used to describe their approach to character.

Here’s what Schneider said about their celebrated 2022 class back in November:

“They’re great workers and they act like they are pros, all of them. I think Tyler Lockett said it best. None of them really talk. They just listen, work their asses off and keep working at their profession.”

Here’s Pete Carroll on how character played a big part in the players they selected:

“It was really important to us. Their character and their confidence in themselves, the ways they came across with that. We were picking them for those spots hoping it would work out and it did. Perfect group of guys in the makeup and the mentality that they brought to us.

We’re always trying to get more accurate in what we’re doing and we really find that the character and makeup part of it was crucial and we continue to look at that.”

Schneider has talked openly about making mistakes in the past. In fairness, that isn’t just about character. He’s discussed drafting players who weren’t up to the challenge of competing against the superstars in the locker room. Players were in awe of Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman, not motivated to take their jobs.

It’s also inevitable that when any reference is made to learning from mistakes, Malik McDowell immediately springs to mind.

The warning signs were there with McDowell — a top-10 talent who sank deep into round two amid a flurry of reports about his character, attitude, personality, dedication to his craft and college consistency.

When Schneider called McDowell to tell him he was being selected, he did so with a warning: “Don’t forget our conversation, OK?”

The Seahawks knew they were selecting a rare physical talent with the tools to be great. They also knew they were taking a gamble. A big gamble. In the second round, three years removed from a Super Bowl run, they felt that chance was worth taking.

McDowell never played a down for the Seahawks.

When I spoke to Scot McCloughan recently, I asked him about the decision making process when weighing up risky picks like McDowell. His answer was telling and important:

“I won’t say any names but there’s a player this year who is highly, highly, highly talented at a position that’s hard to find. I’ve been there before and I’ve taken that player. I learned early, I didn’t listen to it because the talent outweighed the character but my first boss told me if you make one exception, you’ll end up with a team of exceptions. I never understood what that meant until I got older.”

“Everybody makes mistakes. I’ve made many of them. It’s the ones who keep making the same mistake over and over that really worry you.”

I don’t know who the player is he referred to in this quote but the point about a pattern of mistakes is important. There was a pattern with McDowell. There’s a pattern with Carter. From the reported maturity concerns, the clear and obvious conditioning issues and now the legal trouble.

McDowell and Carter are different players with different issues. Yet for all the talk of learning lessons, it wouldn’t be much of a learned lesson to go down this road — with a much more valuable, expensive and high-profile pick.

Seattle’s experience with McDowell, you’d think, should be enough to sit out this next game of roulette. Everyone deserves a mulligan. The Seahawks have had theirs.

Further to that, Dave Wyman (who hosts a weekly show with Schneider) reported a few weeks ago that the Seahawks were unwilling to draft Kayvon Thibodeaux in round one last year. Thibodeaux’s character issue consisted of a keenness to talk, non-stop, about his ‘brand’ and how much money he intended to make. If that was enough to remove him from Seattle’s first round board, it’s hard to imagine Carter is going to be considered.

Really, that should be enough right? Assuming that information on Thibodeaux is true, are we really going to imagine a situation where Thibodeaux’s entrepreneurial ambitions were too problematic but Carter’s reported maturity, conditioning and legal issues are not?

Let’s take the conditioning angle in isolation. We identified a couple of months ago that Carter, when quizzed last April about his priorities for the season, said his #1 aim was to improve his conditioning. He reiterated that twice during the press conference and it was acknowledged by his Head Coach Kirby Smart as necessary.

We could see clearly on tape that these words were not followed up with actions. Carter admitted he was ’embarrassed’ (his words) by his performance against Ohio State, where he looked exhausted and was visibly struggling to get through the game.

Whatever aim he had to improve his conditioning, it seems little was done about it.

Provided Carter was ready for gameday, it wasn’t really viewed as a problem at Georgia. We’re talking about a player so talented that he can live off natural ability.

We saw, however, what happened when the pace quickened and the level upped against the Buckeyes. Suddenly, talent alone wasn’t enough. He’s going to need to take things seriously. When people talk about maturity and Todd McShay talks about whether you’d want him in your locker room, this is part of the issue.

McShay added to what he’s reporting on today’s ‘First Draft podcast’:

“There’s a lot of football character stuff. Practise habits, not giving great effort in practise, talking back to coaches, coaches not being able to coach him hard. There’s a lot of that stuff and it’s all based on seven different sources that I have so I’m not making anything up… You as an organisation have got to figure out can we deal with this?”

The perception is Carroll and Schneider would love to to get such a rare talent in the building and try to work him into a position where he can succeed. Let’s go back to Schneider’s review of the 2022 class:

“They’re great workers and they act like they are pros, all of them. I think Tyler Lockett said it best. None of them really talk. They just listen, work their asses off and keep working at their profession.”

If that was the aim for the draft a year ago — and it led to a class broadly considered an A+ group — it flies in the face of realism that they would follow it up by using a top-five pick on someone like Carter. You’ll need to mould him into a pro and change his entire approach to preparation, conditioning and what it takes to succeed at the highest level.

This is why I think Will Anderson will be so highly regarded by the Seahawks. He is a fantastic scheme fit for the 3-4, he has A+ grades in terms of character, family background, the way he speaks to team mates and the media and he’s an alpha who brings 100% energy and physicality to every series.

That’s a Seahawk. If he lasts to #5, he’ll probably literally be a Seahawk.

You cannot make these arguments for Carter. Bring it every series? Is he even going to bring himself to every lifting session? I’m not being flippant, I’m being serious.

Carter isn’t going to be the pick. The Seahawks might actually appreciate that the mainstream media are focusing on that angle as much as they are.

Someone will take him early. There’s been a lot of fuss around Drew Rosenhaus’ announcement that he won’t meet with any teams not picking in the top-10. Frankly, I think it’s a reasonable tactic from the agent. Better to get in front of the story if most of the league has little interest in meeting (and therefore drafting) his client. Now it sounds like bravado rather than damage limitation.

The team that selects Carter will have a GM in a secure position. That GM will have money in the bank whereby he can afford to risk getting a big decision wrong if the pick busts.

I’m going to mock him to the Eagles at #10 in every projection unless new information emerges. Howie Roseman is a hero to Eagles fans after building two Super Bowl teams in recent years. He already has a Super Bowl roster on his hands, so it’s a low-risk gamble for him. This is an extreme bonus pick for the Eagles. A shot to nothing, really.

Could the Bears take him? Maybe — but they also have a new GM and are rebuilding. I think the Lions are a wildcard. The Eagles will ultimately be my prediction, though.

Character is another reason why I think the Seahawks will also be very intrigued by the quarterbacks. I don’t buy the rhetoric expressed by Florio and Simms that they’ll be worried about undermining Geno Smith. The Geno contract was structured for a reason. It’s a beautifully crafted deal full of incentive without any long-term commitment. With the way Smith’s 2022 season ended, they’re right to keep their options open on a player who was a journeyman until last year.

All four of the top quarterbacks have the competitive attitude and high character that Carroll and Schneider are looking for. Three of the quarterbacks are physical marvels with outstanding upside. The other is being described in the highest terms for his character and talent.

Questions about the future at QB throughout the season? They won’t worry about that. This is the team that spent 14 months living with a Wilson trade saga in the media. They wrote-off millions on a Matt Flynn contract. They’ve handled noise.

I think too much of this draft season has been filled discussing whether the Seahawks are prepared to draft a quarterback. I think it’s fairly evident they are. Now it’s just a case of whether they actually will.

I don’t think the last few months have been one big lying session.

I don’t think they’ve been fibbing about the importance of character in their draft decision making. The 2022 draft is evidence enough of them putting their money where their mouth is, plus the report on their lack of interest in Thibodeaux.

I don’t think they’ve been pulling a fast one, telling everyone they’re monitoring the quarterbacks closely and might take one when they have no intention of doing so. If they were willing to trade Russell Wilson to the Browns in 2018 simply in order to replace him with Josh Allen, or draft Patrick Mahomes in 2017 when they already had prime-Wilson, there’s no reason why they wouldn’t use a rare top-five pick on a quarterback in this draft if Schneider really likes one or more of the group.

When they say picking fifth overall is a rare opportunity they’re excited about — I think they mean it. They’re hopefully never going to be in this position again.

I don’t think they’re as eager to trade down as some believe. Trade down for what? To get even more than the haul of 10 picks they already have? Just to select a guard, running back, tight end or spend a high pick on a cornerback for the first time ever? To get stock in 2024 that they hope will be as good as the top-five pick they already possess?

Thankfully we only have to wait three weeks to find out the truth but I still think it’ll be fairly straight forward in the top-five.

C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young will be the top-two picks, with the order to be determined. I think it’ll be Stroud at #1.

Then the draft hinges on the Cardinals. It’s highly possible a team trades up for one of Anthony Richardson or Will Levis. Arizona needs stock to fill out their roster, after a disastrous free agency period. They’re basically in rebuild mode.

If no sufficient offer comes forth, they’ll almost certainly take Will Anderson. That would be an excellent pick because he has talent, character and can help reset the culture in Arizona. Yet increasingly it feels like someone is going to trade up for Richardson. There’s a reason why Las Vegas, Atlanta and Tennessee are all having official-30 visits with him.

I do think the Seahawks will consider moving up too. They seem to have taken a real shine to Richardson. There’s a reason why Schneider was, according to Corbin Smith, chatting for considerable time to Richardson’s agent at the Florida pro-day, with Carroll having an audience with Billy Napier. It just feels like, whether they ultimately draft him or not, they’re intrigued.

If Arizona sticks and takes Anderson at #3, I would expect Will Levis to go to the Colts. Indianapolis needs a 2023 starter. Levis is better prepared to do that. I don’t know why people who were mocking Levis in the top-five two weeks ago are suddenly dropping him into the teens without explanation. I think it’s that time of year where one prognosticator does one thing and everyone copies. I appreciate why some teams won’t like Levis as an option but I think the Colts and Seahawks will be very prepared to select him considering who their GM’s are, their preferences, and the fit (Levis’ readiness to start for Indianapolis and success within Seattle’s scheme at Kentucky).

In the scenario where picks #3-4 go Anderson/Levis — I would expect the Seahawks to select Richardson at #5.

Anderson or Richardson. Worst case scenario, Levis.

Either way, a win-win-win for the Seahawks.

As for the rest of their picks — I think a few things. Firstly, there’s room for a skill-position pick like we saw a year ago with Ken Walker. That’s represented a ton in mocks with Jordan Addison and Jaxon Smith-Njigba the trendy picks. I think receiver could be an option but see Josh Downs as a more likely fit (or Jonathan Mingo on day two). They might prefer to invest in tight end due to the quality of the class and the need that will be present in 2024.

The ‘edge’ rusher group is not as good as some people are suggesting. There are a lot of names but most are day three types. It’s a position you have to strike early. If it’s not Will Anderson, I would expect Will McDonald to be an early target. Keep an eye on Derrick Hall too as he fits the profile perfectly that Seattle likes at the position. If they can’t get to the key names at the top, they might wait until later for someone like YaYa Diaby — who is having an official-30 visit.

Center will almost certainly be an early target with one of John Michael Schmitz or Luke Wypler seemingly destined to end up in Seattle.

Bodies are needed up front on defense and the Seahawks are very aware of that. Let’s remember though — this has often been a mid-round target. It won’t be a surprise if they see players like Cameron Young, Byron Young (Alabama), Jaquelin Roy and others as good quality snap eaters in the middle rounds, meaning they can focus on other areas early.

The #20-40 range could be a good area to add another player who can flip between three and five-technique to provide extra pressure up front.

It’s also a deep class at safety, full of aggressive, physical players and team captains. I think they’ve worked out they can comfortably replace Ryan Neal with a rookie drafted between rounds 3-5 — saving money.

And what do these players have in common? Anderson, the quarterbacks, Downs, Schmitz, Wypler, Byron Young, Hall, the safeties — high character, mature, pro’s before they’re pro’s.

When the 2023 draft is complete, I’m certain we’ll be looking at the class and acknowledging how important character was when it came to Seattle’s picks.

No Georgia defensive tackles will be included…[

http://seahawksdraftblog.com/

It's rare that I agree this much with Staton. My big board 1-5 matches his own. After that though is where him and I disagree pretty much about a lot of things. But I do agree 110% that this is how the top 5 picks will go in the draft. If Anderson and Carter are on the board, the pick won't be Carter. I guarantee it! Anderson is everything you want in a leader and screams Seahawks to a T.

I also think that if Richardson and Anderson are on the board there's a really good chance that they could select AR. But to trade down just to acquire more picks or picks next year when you already hold the #5 selection this after Pete and John have already been on record saying that this is a rare opportunity, I just don't see a trade back happening. They would have to be blown out of the water with an offer. Nope no way. They're picking at 5 or trading up!

I've been predicting and mocking a QB's to the Seahawks since before the 2022 season even started. AR and Levis are my picks at 5, with Anderson as my consolation prize if we don't get a QB.

[SeattleAddict]

Hot Stacy with a good look at the possibilities. Imagine being with a woman this good looking and this into football. Twilight zone.

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1750955/ ... no-5-pick/

She seems to have a good grasp of what the Seahawks will do. I agree with almost every word of what she says.

I don't find her that hot, though. Attractive, yes, I wouldn't kick her out of bed or anything, just not sure she qualifies for the nickname. I mean, they don't often hire ugly female sports reporters, so the field is saturated.

[douche]

The thing I like to keep in mind is that although SEA knows what they want, they still don't know if that player will be available when their selection comes around. A lot can change on draft day.