Predict The Draft BY Using Pareto Analytics

[Cascade Kid]

I used some time today to pull together some 'relatively sound' data to help us predict at least the positions the Seahawks will select and in which round. The only credible data we have that demonstrate Seahawk interest are Visits and Interviews. So I started there to build the data set.

Once again the goal I am trying to predict and share are the Positions most needed and where the Seahawks will take them.

The other data I used was the players football position. There were 13 positions found in the interviewed and visited players which will be shown in the charts below.

Then I did some not so extensive research but "good enough for ballpark accuracy" to determine projected draft round per player.

There are some very important things to note when looking at these Pareto charts. First is that everyone needs to consider that different positions will natually have more playings available in the draft. There are a whole lot more WRs and Edge guys than QBs and TEs. Since I could not find a source for the actual number of players per position available in the NFL draft, I will not be providing any accurate weighted data when predicting the draft. Some of this decision making will be up to us to use the unbiased info, at the best of our ability, to predict how this draft will go down.

A note about the Pareto Principle for those curious. Pareto was an Italian economist that lived in Sicily. He stated, "80% of the wealth is held by 20% of the people". So this became the 80/20 rule, or Pareto Principle. With that said, this analysis would be a great success if the analytics alone supported 80% draft accuracy. But I am skeptical since I'm going to freestlye some assumptions for the sake of adding resolution to who we might draft based on the data.

First is a chart of the players visited or interviewed by the Seahawks. Please excuse the snippet breaks.

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Pareto Data Collector 1.png (26.37 KiB) Viewed 214 times

Pareto Data Collector 2.png (23.51 KiB) Viewed 214 times

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Here is a simple Pareto chart that shows Football Position and the number of players visited or interviewed by position.

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Pareto player count by position.png (6.77 KiB) Viewed 214 times

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Continued on next post...
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[Cascade Kid]

The next tables are pivot tables. They are useful for sorting some of the data so we can organize it to see it better.

This next table ranks the Football Position by Draft Round Position Average. But please note that due to some FB positions only have two players vs another position have 5, 6, or 7 players, the information is note significantly useful when comparing between those two differences. However, it is very interesting when you see FB Positions such as DT and Safety with an average draft round position of 5 and 5.33 respectively. Kind of shows how the Seahawks might prioritize the draft. Little bit surprising, right?

Also a disclose, and something you may have caught on the first post's table. "UDFA" are "Round 8" picks for the sake of statistical analysis and filtering tools while using pivot tables.

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Pareto Analytics of Average Round by FB Position Rev0.1.png (10.67 KiB) Viewed 196 times

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The next chart will act as a bit of a heat map of sorts for our eyes. You can begin to see more clearly which positions they are focused on and where. Note that QB is actually considered the strongest draft pick based on these analytics. Of the 5 players, 4 are projected to go in the 1st round, and furthermore, there are only 9 players interviewed or drafted that have a 1st round projection based on the data collected from variou draft site pundits. And we see that they are pretty content to hunt for CB up and down the board, likely for various purposes since CBs also play on special teams. Guard, if one is drafted, appears to be a mid-round value pick in the Seahawks' eyes. I'd say DE, TE, and OT are exploratory options give a few reasons. The DEs for instance, there was a rumor the Hawks might switch back to a 4-3 defense, but for a team that is showing some hints at going 4-3 they sure are looking at a lot of Edge/OLB types. TE, 1 fucking TE. A projected 3rd rounder. Sounds like an earmark to see if they guy slips into the mid rounds, perhaps.

Anyhow, here's the "Not So Hot, Heat Chart"
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Pareto Analysis Heat Chart.png Rev0.1.png (12.79 KiB) Viewed 196 times

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So strictly off of this data we can get some interesting information and possible predicts to follow. I will go out on a limb and make some broad draft predictions. Please feel free to make your own based on this data as well.

First Pick: QB
Second Pick: Edge
Third Pick: C
Fourth Pick: CB
Fifth Pick: DT
Sixth Pick: Safety
Seventh Pick: Edge
Eighth Pick: LB
Ninth Pick: RB
Tenth Pick: Safety

Strangely I feel the 4th pick and 8th pick could flip either way. And I also feel that RB could be an outlier we could see in the 2nd or 3rd round since it would be very complementary to have another RB that can run 120 to 150 times along side Kenneth Walker

Of course none of the data supports any assumption of a trade. However, if the draft board does look a little over loaded in an area, or if the draft could be better supported by a trade down for more picks, it certainly should be considered. But this consideration would break away from the Pareto Principle of 80/20.

Hope you enjoy this data. If it serves well this year I'll do another next year. Perhaps we can learn something during the draft that we can apply to make the analysis more accurate.

Cheers!