Fantastic analysis by Bob. He is great and we are lucky to have him.
By Bob Condotta
Seattle Times staff reporter
The 2023 NFL trade deadline came and went Tuesday with nary a sound from the Seahawks.
That’s because the Seahawks had made their big noise the day before, a trade with the Giants for veteran defensive lineman Leonard Williams.
The Seahawks announced Tuesday that the trade had become official, meaning Williams had passed his physical, and they waived receiver Cody Thompson on Tuesday to make room for him on the 53-man roster.
With that, your 2023 Seahawks roster is now essentially set.
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From now until the end of the season, the only way to add players is to either sign street free agents — players not on a roster — or by claiming players who are waived.
As of 1 p.m. Tuesday, all players must go through waivers, meaning they can be claimed by any team in order of that week’s draft order (Seattle this week stands 25th).
But Seattle’s trade for Williams and some other events Tuesday left some lingering questions. Let’s address a few.
Q: Why didn’t the Seahawks just make the trade the 49ers did for Chase Young?
A: Maybe the most jaw-dropping move of trade deadline day was the 49ers acquiring 24-year-old edge rusher Young from Washington for a third-round pick in 2024, a move that in some ways almost felt like an answer by a San Francisco team mired in a three-game losing streak to the move the Seahawks made the day before.
The unexpectedly low cost for Young led to inevitable comparisons to Seattle giving up a 2024 second-rounder and 2025 fifth for Williams.
“Young for a 3 and a $560K salary makes that Seahawks trade for Williams look so silly,” wrote Jason Fitzgerald of the website OvertheCap.com.
While there were no reports linking Seattle as being involved in talks for Young, the second overall pick of the 2020 draft and in the midst of a solid season with five sacks in seven games, it’s hard to imagine the “Always Compete” Seahawks didn’t at least do their due diligence.
A few quick thoughts on that:
It’s possible Washington’s asking price was higher at the time Seattle made the Williams trade Monday and dropped afterward, by which time the Seahawks may not have wanted to make another big deal;
Young can be a free agent at the end of the year and will likely want a deal that averages about what the franchise tag for defensive ends could be in 2024, which some estimate currently at $22.7 million. Seattle may feel the 29-year-old Williams will be less costly to re-sign (maybe a three-year deal that’s really a two, for instance);
Seattle currently is listed with just over $17 million in cap space left for the 2024 season. That’s because the Seahawks have several contracts that make huge jumps in cap space next year. Consider that Seattle’s highest cap number for 2023 is DK Metcalf at $13.7 million. Currently, Seattle has six players whose cap numbers balloon to $18 million or more in 2024, led by the $31.2 million of Geno Smith. The others are Jamal Adams, Tyler Lockett, Quandre Diggs, Dre’Mont Jones and Metcalf. In other words, Seattle already has some tough decisions coming this offseason;
Maybe Seattle also felt Williams is more of what the team needs now — and to be sure, this is mostly a move for the now. As coach Pete Carroll mentioned Monday, Williams has versatility and can play any of the three interior line spots whereas Young would play primarily on the edge. And adding another player inside — and an elite one at that — makes Seattle that much deeper at a key spot. Seattle doesn’t really have proven depth behind any of its three starting interior players (nose tackle Jarran Reed and ends Jones and Mario Edwards Jr.). Rookie nose tackle Cameron Young and end Myles Adams, who has played just 70 snaps this season, are the only other two interior DLs on the 53-man roster;
It’s thought the Seahawks had been in talks with the Giants for at least a few weeks. Seattle’s signing of Frank Clark last week to replace the injured Uchenna Nwosu may have foreshadowed that if Seattle was going to make a move up front it had decided it would be on the interior DL;
Finally, all teams likely share some concern over Young’s ACL injury in 2021 that then lingered into 2022, when he played just three games, especially as he enters free agency.
Q: Seattle also can get a compensatory pick for Williams if he signs elsewhere, correct?
A: Yes. Williams could qualify for as high as a third-round comp pick in 2025 if he were to sign a significant contract elsewhere next year, though there is no guarantee of that as it’s based on a formula that also considers the signings Seattle might make.
Still, there’s no doubt that played into Seattle’s decision with the Seahawks thinking that they could get Williams for the rest of this season for roughly $648,000 and then recoup a significant portion of the draft capital.
Q: But won’t the Seahawks feel like they must re-sign him?
A: Not necessarily. Seattle gave up Jermaine Kearse and a second-round pick to the Jets in 2017 for defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson and then let him walk in free agency and traded Jacob Martin, Barkevious Mingo and a third-round pick before the 2019 season for defensive lineman Jadeveon Clowney and also saw him leave in free agency.
True, a second and a fifth for potentially just 10 games of a 29-year-old player feels like a more significant risk.
Seattle also is undoubtedly reacting to the 5-2 start, suddenly being in first place in the NFC West and a window of opportunity for postseason success that feels far more open than few could have imagined a month ago.
And that comes within the context of a franchise that has some lingering questions moving forward, notably the long-term status of the quarterback position.
Smith turned 33 earlier this month, so he could have more than a handful of good years still ahead of him. But his contract was also structured in a way that Seattle could get out of it after this year — he has no more guaranteed money.
And, well, we hate to keep bringing this up, but Pete Carroll turned 72 last month. Who knows how many more times the window will open like this?
Since trading two first-rounders for Adams in July 2020, Seattle has made only one trade of draft picks for a veteran player for a pick higher than the sixth round — a fifth-rounder in 2021 for guard Gabe Jackson.
As you may not need reminding, they also loaded up on picks with the Russell Wilson deal — so much so that as of Tuesday, Seattle was tied for the most draft picks in the NFL on its roster with 15, is tied for the second-most players 25 or younger on its roster with 31 and has the ninth-youngest overall roster with an average age of 26.35. That latter number, though, also indicates that Seattle has a few significant players on the upper end of the age scale (Bobby Wagner and Smith 33, Lockett 31, Diggs and Reed 30).
The price Seattle gave up trying to win now will forever be debated, though again, they did so to get the Giants to pay more than $9 million of Williams’ remaining salary, something that was not a consideration with Washington and Young, who was owed just $561,111 for the rest of the year.
It may also be worth remembering that while the Seahawks have continued to be among the winningest teams in the NFL the past decade, they haven’t advanced past the divisional round of the playoffs since its last Super Bowl appearance following the 2014 season.
That may have made a gamble for the now make more sense to them than ever.