Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

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D-train
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by D-train » Fri Nov 10, 2023 8:50 pm

Dude literally stole the key components of my off season plan and will pay dearly for his sins. lol He switched the trade piece from Woo to Gilbert to cover his tracks!!!

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=8747#p266691
Morosi mentioned the Mariners as a possible suitor for Yamamoto on Friday. After ranking fourth in the Majors in rotation ERA and 12th in runs scored last season, the club has a greater need for hitting than pitching. However, Morosi believes the team could look to sign Yamamoto in free agency and trade a controllable arm such as Logan Gilbert for a bat, rather than pursuing a top free-agent hitter.
dt

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GL_Storm
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by GL_Storm » Fri Nov 10, 2023 9:09 pm

Morosi is a fucking tool, but I do like the Yandy Diaz idea.

Pharmabro
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by Pharmabro » Fri Nov 10, 2023 11:23 pm

GL_Storm wrote:
Fri Nov 10, 2023 9:09 pm
Morosi is a fucking tool, but I do like the Yandy Diaz idea.
I do to.

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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by Pharmabro » Sat Nov 11, 2023 3:29 am

I was looking at ways we could upgrade 2B.

And I had already looked at Willy Adames as a SS/2B player. But the Brewers are listening on all their players and already shipped out Mark Canha. The 92 win Brewers are lacking pitching they let Wade Miley walk.
Corbin BUrns is healthy but has just 1 year left.
Woodruff is hurt and also a FA in 2025.

But what is Willy Adames? Adames was just a 95 OPS+ bat in 2023 but still hit over 20 HR and had 80 RBI on the year (3WAR), He had 98 RBI in 2022, but back in 2021 he had a peak year with the bat at a 137 OPS+. In 699 games at SS Willy has been 38 runs above average // vs JP who in 630 games at SS has been 21 runs above average. Adames's sprint speed is 27.6 FPS vs 26.7 for JP.

The 1-year rental has a trade calc at 12.7M. and his salary is supposed to be 12.4M. If he has an up year he is a all-star level bat. Even if he stays at about his career average of 107 OPS+ he bring a 20-something HR bat to the line-up. I get that the 2B is corwded with "OK" options:
Jose C. was worth 2.4 WAR in 104 games thanks to his speed game, and high OBP .343 but not much in power numbers and ended at a 90 OPS+. In 280 PAs he had as many SB26 as RBI (26)

Dilly Moore last 2 years 122OPS+, and a 104

*Rojas has been as high as a 110 OPS+ and in 2022 was 23/26 in SBs max RBI year was 56

Haggerty** Last 2 years 116 OPS+, and a 102.

I think Haggerty 7.3M and the comp Rd. pick at 6+M gets it done.

Christion Yellich had a decent year 3.6BWAR 124 OPS+ but the previous 3 years were 101 to 110 OPS+. And these 3 ho-hum years connect to 2-MVP seasons in a row. Yikes he will be 32 and looks like a contract that is under water at 5X26M +6.5M Buyout of a mutual option. I feel like this and yet Cody B. went for an 167 OPS+ MVP year in 2019, then goes 112 OPS+, 44OPS+, and 81 OPS+, before hitting to a 133 OPS+ this year. And I hear folks throwing around 200M, 250M like 2021, and 2022 didn't happen.

I like Christian he still has a speed element to his game 28 SB in 2023. His trade calc is at -35M, I would give them a package of around 15 to 20M in prospect value and get them to pay about 50M in salary relief. He is owed 136.5M for 5 years that would switch it down to 86.5M that would be a 17.3M average for his age 32-36 seasons. .278 .370 .447 .817

I guess with all that negative value you could wrap up Marco and White to help the Brewers "Save face" by not showing the fans they were paying Christian 50M to go away. You could do a package of CY -35M & Willy A.12.4M =-22.4M for Marco -8.1M & White -15M and change :D

Seattle or Bust
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by Seattle or Bust » Sat Nov 11, 2023 4:30 am

Yandy:
Image

France:
Image

Yandy Diaz reminds me of Ty France... all the number pre '23 look like what Ty France has done.

Not sure I want to trade the moon for what Ty France could become when he's 31.

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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by Pharmabro » Sat Nov 11, 2023 5:24 am

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2023 4:30 am
Yandy:
Image

France:
Image

Yandy Diaz reminds me of Ty France... all the number pre '23 look like what Ty France has done.

Not sure I want to trade the moon for what Ty France could become when he's 31.
OMG! I was looking at Yandy's profile and that was exactly what I was thinking.
Ty's 2020-2022
285 .355 .443 .798 127 OPS+
(562 games)108 doubles to 61 HR
But it'd the profile a high average and OBP but not a hugs ISO a lot more doubles than HRs.

Yandy is even more of an extreme gap power type
.290 .381 .438 .819 129 OPS+
(609 games)124 doubles to 61 HR

Before the Indians traded him he had 1 HR and 16 other XBH in 88 games 299 PAs before trading him. And he is a 1B/3B "power position". Even though his 142 and 158 OPS+ stats look great he was not a big run producer. He had 95 runs and 78 RBI on a TB team that had a lot of RBI's available. But I am still looking to add that bat. And I would be willing to pay the freight to get him here. And because he is is more of a .290/.380/.440 type vs .300/.400/.500 type I believe he is gettable at face value.

I flipped around my package going out for him to fit in Tyler Locklear who is the M's top 1B prospect and #11 ranked prospect and ranked right behind 2 of our 1st round picks from 2023 and ahead of studs like Lazzaro Montez, Bliss, Prelander, and several other notable prospects.
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bpj
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by bpj » Sat Nov 11, 2023 8:24 am

Ty France as the guy that can DH and play 1B/3B is very valuable imo.

His versatility is what they should he utilizing instead of pigeonholing him as a 1B.

Go get a first baseman and have Ty and Moore as your utility players. That's good offensive depth.

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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by Seattle or Bust » Sat Nov 11, 2023 8:35 am

bpj wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2023 8:24 am
Ty France as the guy that can DH and play 1B/3B is very valuable imo.

His versatility is what they should he utilizing instead of pigeonholing him as a 1B.

Go get a first baseman and have Ty and Moore as your utility players. That's good offensive depth.
I don't really care where they play Ty.

I just don't think Yandy Diaz is who you'd want to replace him with. We really want another 1B whose baseline is .280/.380/.420 in most years? I don't really want a 1B who is going to hit 12 home runs in an off year given what it will cost to get him. He'll be 32, he can't run... and we're going to have to give up lots of top prospects for him?

I'd much rather roll with Ty and hope he can get back to .270/.360/.450 w. 20 homers like he's been for most of his career... and we'll get him for his low arb figure.

And if not, I'd much, much rather have Pete Alonso who is younger and a threat to hit 50 dingers.

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bpj
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by bpj » Sat Nov 11, 2023 8:47 am

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2023 8:35 am
bpj wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2023 8:24 am
Ty France as the guy that can DH and play 1B/3B is very valuable imo.

His versatility is what they should he utilizing instead of pigeonholing him as a 1B.

Go get a first baseman and have Ty and Moore as your utility players. That's good offensive depth.
I don't really care where they play Ty.

I just don't think Yandy Diaz is who you'd want to replace him with. We really want another 1B whose baseline is .280/.380/.420 in most years? I don't really want a 1B who is going to hit 12 home runs in an off year given what it will cost to get him. He'll be 32, he can't run... and we're going to have to give up lots of top prospects for him?

I'd much rather roll with Ty and hope he can get back to .270/.360/.450 w. 20 homers like he's been for most of his career... and we'll get him for his low arb figure.

And if not, I'd much, much rather have Pete Alonso who is younger and a threat to hit 50 dingers.
It's more like we're replacing Tommy La Stella with Diaz since we're keeping France also.

I'd rather have Diaz and Ty than no upgrade at 1B. Otherwise we'll have a rotating DH with one man short.

I'd prefer Alonso, but he only fills a one year hole. But if they pull that off, great! From where I'm sitting they can get all three of them, then trade Geno and put France at 3B.

I just don't want them to call it good with France at 1B then they just get an OF'er....

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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by Seattle or Bust » Sat Nov 11, 2023 8:57 am

bpj wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2023 8:47 am
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2023 8:35 am
bpj wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2023 8:24 am
Ty France as the guy that can DH and play 1B/3B is very valuable imo.

His versatility is what they should he utilizing instead of pigeonholing him as a 1B.

Go get a first baseman and have Ty and Moore as your utility players. That's good offensive depth.
I don't really care where they play Ty.

I just don't think Yandy Diaz is who you'd want to replace him with. We really want another 1B whose baseline is .280/.380/.420 in most years? I don't really want a 1B who is going to hit 12 home runs in an off year given what it will cost to get him. He'll be 32, he can't run... and we're going to have to give up lots of top prospects for him?

I'd much rather roll with Ty and hope he can get back to .270/.360/.450 w. 20 homers like he's been for most of his career... and we'll get him for his low arb figure.

And if not, I'd much, much rather have Pete Alonso who is younger and a threat to hit 50 dingers.
It's more like we're replacing Tommy La Stella with Diaz since we're keeping France also.

I'd rather have Diaz and Ty than no upgrade at 1B. Otherwise we'll have a rotating DH with one man short.

I'd prefer Alonso, but he only fills a one year hole. But if they pull that off, great! From where I'm sitting they can get all three of them, then trade Geno and put France at 3B.

I just don't want them to call it good with France at 1B then they just get an OF'er....
MLBTV has Diaz worth in the range of essentially 3 of the M's top 5 prospects.

I don't want any part of that for a 1B who has hit for a .800 OPS and 15 homers a season through out his career.

Go get someone much better than that if you're going to trade that many good, young players.

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