Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

[D-train]

AAA stat comparison

Age 24 season OPS (age 25 for Cade)

Canzone .838
TT .818
Cade .781
DeLoach .868

[harmony]

Something I have circled back to is the Jorge Polanco trade.
--https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/ ... trade.html

He has been a 115 OPS+ bat who has been played at SS, 2B, DH 3B, (positions listed by # of games played). He has lost out to young break-out Rookies: Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien, and Carlos C. signed to the mega-deal. He is owed 10.5 for 2024 +a 750K buyout of a 2025 12M option. Jorge Polanco's trade calc. is about 9M which was about what Geno's was.

I don't think after the other salary dumps the Twins have any delusions of getting Woo-Gilbert out of this deal. Maybe a pure prospect package

I went with trading them:
Jose C. He was a 2-WAR guy who held his own with a 90 OPS+, and can play anywhere in the infield well enough even SS. He can get stolen bases really well and would be a guy they can option down for the next 2 years while having a really good back-up for infield at the same time. He handles himself well at the plate: he had better than a 12% walk rate and was 26/29 in SBs.

I added a good BP arm with options in Ty Adcock

And then added two more major league depth types in Kuhn, and Mcgo

ANd now all we need is a legit bat for the outfield.

Last season Seattle received 1.2 fWAR in 46 games from Josh Rojas and 2.2 fWAR in 104 games from rookie Jose Caballero. That’s a combined 3.4 fWAR in 150 games from the potential 2024 second-base platoon of the lefthand-hitting Rojas and righthand-hitting Caballero.

As a point of reference, last season 30-year-old Jorge Polanco posted 1.5 fWAR in 80 games. For Seattle, the 29-year-old Rojas and 27-year-old Caballero each accrued 2023 WAR at a per-game rate that matched or exceeded that of Polanco. A platoon might not be necessary.

The Mariners await the projected 2024 debut of intriguing prospect Ryan Bliss, a starting second baseman in the 2023 Futures Game and Defensive Player of the Year in the Arizona Fall League. Last year across Double A and Triple A, the now 24-year-old Bliss posted a .304/.378/.524/.902 line with 23 home runs and 55 stolen bases.

Seattle has offseason needs but Polanco would add little to the roster.

[bpj]

Something I have circled back to is the Jorge Polanco trade.
--https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/ ... trade.html

He has been a 115 OPS+ bat who has been played at SS, 2B, DH 3B, (positions listed by # of games played). He has lost out to young break-out Rookies: Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien, and Carlos C. signed to the mega-deal. He is owed 10.5 for 2024 +a 750K buyout of a 2025 12M option. Jorge Polanco's trade calc. is about 9M which was about what Geno's was.

I don't think after the other salary dumps the Twins have any delusions of getting Woo-Gilbert out of this deal. Maybe a pure prospect package

I went with trading them:
Jose C. He was a 2-WAR guy who held his own with a 90 OPS+, and can play anywhere in the infield well enough even SS. He can get stolen bases really well and would be a guy they can option down for the next 2 years while having a really good back-up for infield at the same time. He handles himself well at the plate: he had better than a 12% walk rate and was 26/29 in SBs.

I added a good BP arm with options in Ty Adcock

And then added two more major league depth types in Kuhn, and Mcgo

ANd now all we need is a legit bat for the outfield.

Last season Seattle received 1.2 fWAR in 46 games from Josh Rojas and 2.2 fWAR in 104 games from rookie Jose Caballero. That’s a combined 3.4 fWAR in 150 games from the potential 2024 second-base platoon of the lefthand-hitting Rojas and righthand-hitting Caballero.

As a point of reference, last season 30-year-old Jorge Polanco posted 1.5 fWAR in 80 games. For Seattle, the 29-year-old Rojas and 27-year-old Caballero each accrued 2023 WAR at a per-game rate that matched or exceeded that of Polanco. A platoon might not be necessary.

The Mariners await the projected 2024 debut of intriguing prospect Ryan Bliss, a starting second baseman in the 2023 Futures Game and Defensive Player of the Year in the Arizona Fall League. Last year across Double A and Triple A, the now 24-year-old Bliss posted a .304/.378/.524/.902 line with 23 home runs and 55 stolen bases.

Seattle has offseason needs but Polanco would add little to the roster.

Good info harmony.

Second base seems like it's taken care of for 2024 imo. If they blow it this year then they can adjust, but any of the three options seems good enough to go into 2024 with.

Using Games played may not be the best way to grade Rojas and Caballero either.

Caballero, for example, had 29 games where he had either 0 or 1 plate appearance.

If you use WAR/600 it shows Caballero put up WAR at a rate of 4.71 per 600 PA's.

Rojas was even more impressive, compiling WAR at a rate of 5.37 per 600 PA.

Polanco accumulated WAR at a rate of just 2.62 per 600 PA's.

The formula is just: (WAR/PA)*600

That's not to say, "If they got 600 plate appearances, that's what WAR they would have."

Just gives a good comparative value of the rate they accumulated WAR based on actual results, so we can compare players who had different amounts of playing time, and how they performed when they were on the field.

Rojas and Caballero played like 5 WAR players.

Eugene Suarez had 3.2 WAR in 694 PA's, for a WAR/600 of 2.77.

Caballero/Rojas had 3.6 WAR in 414 PA's.

[D-train]

Something I have circled back to is the Jorge Polanco trade.
--https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/ ... trade.html

He has been a 115 OPS+ bat who has been played at SS, 2B, DH 3B, (positions listed by # of games played). He has lost out to young break-out Rookies: Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien, and Carlos C. signed to the mega-deal. He is owed 10.5 for 2024 +a 750K buyout of a 2025 12M option. Jorge Polanco's trade calc. is about 9M which was about what Geno's was.

I don't think after the other salary dumps the Twins have any delusions of getting Woo-Gilbert out of this deal. Maybe a pure prospect package

I went with trading them:
Jose C. He was a 2-WAR guy who held his own with a 90 OPS+, and can play anywhere in the infield well enough even SS. He can get stolen bases really well and would be a guy they can option down for the next 2 years while having a really good back-up for infield at the same time. He handles himself well at the plate: he had better than a 12% walk rate and was 26/29 in SBs.

I added a good BP arm with options in Ty Adcock

And then added two more major league depth types in Kuhn, and Mcgo

ANd now all we need is a legit bat for the outfield.

Last season Seattle received 1.2 fWAR in 46 games from Josh Rojas and 2.2 fWAR in 104 games from rookie Jose Caballero. That’s a combined 3.4 fWAR in 150 games from the potential 2024 second-base platoon of the lefthand-hitting Rojas and righthand-hitting Caballero.

As a point of reference, last season 30-year-old Jorge Polanco posted 1.5 fWAR in 80 games. For Seattle, the 29-year-old Rojas and 27-year-old Caballero each accrued 2023 WAR at a per-game rate that matched or exceeded that of Polanco. A platoon might not be necessary.

The Mariners await the projected 2024 debut of intriguing prospect Ryan Bliss, a starting second baseman in the 2023 Futures Game and Defensive Player of the Year in the Arizona Fall League. Last year across Double A and Triple A, the now 24-year-old Bliss posted a .304/.378/.524/.902 line with 23 home runs and 55 stolen bases.

Seattle has offseason needs but Polanco would add little to the roster.

Agree on Polanco but not sure why you chose to omit the AFL stats which most closely approximates MLB pitching. He hit .239 with a .664 OPS including a anemic .296 SLG% with only 2 doubles a triple and ZERO HRs in 87 PAs.

Also while he had a seemingly respectable .779 OPS in AAA this season, a gently reminder that it is the most hitter friendly league in all of Professional baseball. For Reference:

2023 AAA OPS
Ford: 1.031
Haggerty: .997
Wong: .922
Trammell: .920
Scheiner: .878
Deloach: .868
Hummel: .844

I guess ignorance is Bliss.

[D-train]

Thanks bpj for turning me onto ChatGPT. lol

[Pharmabro]

Something I have circled back to is the Jorge Polanco trade.
--https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/ ... trade.html

He has been a 115 OPS+ bat who has been played at SS, 2B, DH 3B, (positions listed by # of games played). He has lost out to young break-out Rookies: Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien, and Carlos C. signed to the mega-deal. He is owed 10.5 for 2024 +a 750K buyout of a 2025 12M option. Jorge Polanco's trade calc. is about 9M which was about what Geno's was.

I don't think after the other salary dumps the Twins have any delusions of getting Woo-Gilbert out of this deal. Maybe a pure prospect package

I went with trading them:
Jose C. He was a 2-WAR guy who held his own with a 90 OPS+, and can play anywhere in the infield well enough even SS. He can get stolen bases really well and would be a guy they can option down for the next 2 years while having a really good back-up for infield at the same time. He handles himself well at the plate: he had better than a 12% walk rate and was 26/29 in SBs.

I added a good BP arm with options in Ty Adcock

And then added two more major league depth types in Kuhn, and Mcgo

ANd now all we need is a legit bat for the outfield.

Last season Seattle received 1.2 fWAR in 46 games from Josh Rojas and 2.2 fWAR in 104 games from rookie Jose Caballero. That’s a combined 3.4 fWAR in 150 games from the potential 2024 second-base platoon of the lefthand-hitting Rojas and righthand-hitting Caballero.

As a point of reference, last season 30-year-old Jorge Polanco posted 1.5 fWAR in 80 games. For Seattle, the 29-year-old Rojas and 27-year-old Caballero each accrued 2023 WAR at a per-game rate that matched or exceeded that of Polanco. A platoon might not be necessary.

The Mariners await the projected 2024 debut of intriguing prospect Ryan Bliss, a starting second baseman in the 2023 Futures Game and Defensive Player of the Year in the Arizona Fall League. Last year across Double A and Triple A, the now 24-year-old Bliss posted a .304/.378/.524/.902 line with 23 home runs and 55 stolen bases.

Seattle has offseason needs but Polanco would add little to the roster.

Good info harmony.

Second base seems like it's taken care of for 2024 imo. If they blow it this year then they can adjust, but any of the three options seems good enough to go into 2024 with.

Using Games played may not be the best way to grade Rojas and Caballero either.

Caballero, for example, had 29 games where he had either 0 or 1 plate appearance.

If you use WAR/600 it shows Caballero put up WAR at a rate of 4.71 per 600 PA's.

Rojas was even more impressive, compiling WAR at a rate of 5.37 per 600 PA.

Polanco accumulated WAR at a rate of just 2.62 per 600 PA's.

The formula is just: (WAR/PA)*600

That's not to say, "If they got 600 plate appearances, that's what WAR they would have."

Just gives a good comparative value of the rate they accumulated WAR based on actual results, so we can compare players who had different amounts of playing time, and how they performed when they were on the field.

Rojas and Caballero played like 5 WAR players.

Eugene Suarez had 3.2 WAR in 694 PA's, for a WAR/600 of 2.77.

Caballero/Rojas had 3.6 WAR in 414 PA's.

Not to be the poo-poo guy but: Rojas got hot after being traded to us. When he was in Az. in 62 games he was worth -0.3 BWAR with his 62 OPS+ vs his 103 in Seattle. I think he is more the Seattle guy but that is just me.
Jose was a great call-up with the way Wong hit for us. But over his last 78 games this was his line .200 .320 .282 .603 OPS. In May he had a 17 game hot streak .342 .482 .537 1.018 but other than that he sucked.

[Pharmabro]

Thanks bpj for turning me onto ChatGPT. lol

Chat GPT has a lib Bias as do all these "AI" programs.

[harmony]

Something I have circled back to is the Jorge Polanco trade.
--https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/ ... trade.html

He has been a 115 OPS+ bat who has been played at SS, 2B, DH 3B, (positions listed by # of games played). He has lost out to young break-out Rookies: Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien, and Carlos C. signed to the mega-deal. He is owed 10.5 for 2024 +a 750K buyout of a 2025 12M option. Jorge Polanco's trade calc. is about 9M which was about what Geno's was.

I don't think after the other salary dumps the Twins have any delusions of getting Woo-Gilbert out of this deal. Maybe a pure prospect package

I went with trading them:
Jose C. He was a 2-WAR guy who held his own with a 90 OPS+, and can play anywhere in the infield well enough even SS. He can get stolen bases really well and would be a guy they can option down for the next 2 years while having a really good back-up for infield at the same time. He handles himself well at the plate: he had better than a 12% walk rate and was 26/29 in SBs.

I added a good BP arm with options in Ty Adcock

And then added two more major league depth types in Kuhn, and Mcgo

ANd now all we need is a legit bat for the outfield.

Last season Seattle received 1.2 fWAR in 46 games from Josh Rojas and 2.2 fWAR in 104 games from rookie Jose Caballero. That’s a combined 3.4 fWAR in 150 games from the potential 2024 second-base platoon of the lefthand-hitting Rojas and righthand-hitting Caballero.

As a point of reference, last season 30-year-old Jorge Polanco posted 1.5 fWAR in 80 games. For Seattle, the 29-year-old Rojas and 27-year-old Caballero each accrued 2023 WAR at a per-game rate that matched or exceeded that of Polanco. A platoon might not be necessary.

The Mariners await the projected 2024 debut of intriguing prospect Ryan Bliss, a starting second baseman in the 2023 Futures Game and Defensive Player of the Year in the Arizona Fall League. Last year across Double A and Triple A, the now 24-year-old Bliss posted a .304/.378/.524/.902 line with 23 home runs and 55 stolen bases.

Seattle has offseason needs but Polanco would add little to the roster.

Agree on Polanco but not sure why you chose to omit the AFL stats which most closely approximates MLB pitching. He hit .239 with a .664 OPS including a anemic .296 SLG% with only 2 doubles a triple and ZERO HRs in 87 PAs.

Also while he had a seemingly respectable .779 OPS in AAA this season, a gently reminder that it is the most hitter friendly league in all of Professional baseball.

Assign appropriate weight to the 19 games in the Arizona Fall League versus the 128 games across Double A and Triple A in 2023.

Ryan Bliss hit 62 percent above the league average with a 162 wRC+ in 324 plate appearances at Double A Amarillo. Bliss was slightly below league average with a wRC+ of 97 in 226 plate appearances at Triple A Tacoma, where he was 3.6 years younger than the league average.

Hence, the label "intriguing prospect."

BTW the cited Arizona Fall League stats omitted the AFL postseason where Bliss stroked a grand slam in the championship play-in game:

https://www.mlb.com/video/ryan-bliss-grand-slam-x7931

[D-train]

[harmony]

Hint: League-adjusted wRC+ is probably more meaningful than raw OPS stats.