Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

[harmony]

Kudos to you for refraining from calling them complete idiots. I probably would have failed in exercising such restraint. lol

An interesting discussion followed a proposed trade of Minnesota third baseman Royce Lewis for Logan Gilbert (noting that neither team would likely sign off on the swap):

https://twinsdaily.com/minnesota-twins- ... nt-1357756

You make a great point. Gilbert has 88 starts and Lewis has played in 70 games...

The conversation on Royce Lewis continued over at Twins Daily:

Royce Lewis, the No. 1 pick in the 2017 draft, and Kyle Lewis, the No. 11 pick in the 2016 draft, have each undergone multiple knee surgeries. They share more than their last names.

Royce Lewis indeed had 519 at-bats in 127 games in 2019, the same year Kyle Lewis had 528 at-bats in 140 games.

Royce Lewis posted 2.4 fWAR in 58 games last year after a 12-game MLB debut the previous season. In 2020 Kyle Lewis posted 2.0 fWAR in 58 games after an 18-game MLB debut in 2019.

The past three seasons Royce Lewis has averaged just shy of 40 games a year across all levels; Kyle Lewis has averaged just shy of 60 games a year across all levels.

The Seattle Mariners traded Kyle Lewis to Arizona in November 2022. This offseason the Diamondbacks nontendered Lewis despite his .371/.457/.641/1.098 line in 293 plate appearances last year at Triple A Reno.

Because of his injury history, Royce Lewis has a wider range of possible outcomes than a player with no injury history. Lewis could become the All Star we all hope for ... or fall far short.

https://twinsdaily.com/minnesota-twins- ... nt-1358103

[Big_Maple]

https://twinsdaily.com/minnesota-twins- ... nt-1358103

Too bad we don't have Cooper Hummel as a trade chip. This would bring everything full circle. Back to a janky-kneed Lewis with lots of unfulfilled potential.

[Donn Beach]

11M for one year. That is a little more than I had in mind but am not shocked because of the contracts that guys like Giolotto 19AAV, and 11M Lynn, Gibson 12 or 13M

I would have liked him to be a lefty in the pen and that 6th-7th starter.

Even if he doesn't get injured again, he's washed.

There's health concerns but washed? Guess his impact would be limited even healthy, his starts would be limited, but that still seems pretty ideal for a fifth starter.

"You know what you're getting with Paxton. Or, at least, you know what you're not getting: a full slate of starts. He threw 96 innings in 2023, his most since the 2019 campaign. In the three years between those seasons, he notched a total of 21 2/3 frames. Paxton nevertheless pitched well when he was able to contribute. His fastball still sits in the mid-90s, and it plays faster thanks to a deep release point. He also has a pair of secondary offerings, in his curve and cutter, that he could probably stand to throw more often. Different teams have different appetites for risk, making Paxton difficult to rank. We're putting him here because we think his upside will help him clear some with higher floors."

[D-train]

[D-train]

11M for one year. That is a little more than I had in mind but am not shocked because of the contracts that guys like Giolotto 19AAV, and 11M Lynn, Gibson 12 or 13M

I would have liked him to be a lefty in the pen and that 6th-7th starter.

Even if he doesn't get injured again, he's washed.

There's health concerns but washed? Guess his impact would be limited even healthy, his starts would be limited, but that still seems pretty ideal for a fifth starter.

"You know what you're getting with Paxton. Or, at least, you know what you're not getting: a full slate of starts. He threw 96 innings in 2023, his most since the 2019 campaign. In the three years between those seasons, he notched a total of 21 2/3 frames. Paxton nevertheless pitched well when he was able to contribute. His fastball still sits in the mid-90s, and it plays faster thanks to a deep release point. He also has a pair of secondary offerings, in his curve and cutter, that he could probably stand to throw more often. Different teams have different appetites for risk, making Paxton difficult to rank. We're putting him here because we think his upside will help him clear some with higher floors."

4.50 ERA, 4.68 FIP 1.1 WAR 1 year older....

Last 13 starts

Capture.JPG (26.26 KiB) Viewed 1142 times

[Donn Beach]

I was thinking he could see improvement, another year removed from his TJ surgery.

Still, the 2024 season will mark Paxton's second coming off major surgery and that bodes well for his chances in a nice bounce back. There was once thought to be ace upside in Paxton and that's gone now at his age, but it's reasonable to believe he has a chance to put together a season like he did with the Yankees in 2019 (3.82 ERA, 116 ERA+, 186 K in 150 2/3 IP).

[Lamda]

This means, knowing how cheap our FO is - the only way we get Snell of all the Snell lovers out there is if we end up trading Castillo as their salaries will essentially cancel each other out making it a wash or a small add onto the current books in terms of Snell. Seeing their trades to date - this makes me a little nervous in that I worry they will just basically dump Castillo for garbage just to get someone to take on all the salary so we get Zero in return whereas if we traded one of the younger arms we'd actually get something of legit value back in return to help our offense, not to mention maintain 4 elite arms at the top of our rotation for a few years. We know that can't happen though as the FO couldn't have decided this late in the game to add 30mill in salary when they've gone out of their way to cut.

[GL_Storm]

I don't think signing Snell makes sense. Right now, I'll take Castillo, Gilbert, and Kirby over Snell and it isn't even close. And there's a non-zero chance I'll add Bryce Miller and Brian Woo to that by the end of the 2024 season. I understand the idea of trading a young pitcher for a bat and then signing Snell, but I don't think Snell is really all that good, and I think that's why he hasn't signed yet. I think the league sees his two Cy Youngs, but then they see some more middling seasons in-between.

I love the idea that he wants to come here and that's a definite plus, but I don't think whatever hometown discount is on the table is all that meaningful, or the deal would have been done weeks ago and one of the young pitchers would probably be getting ready for spring training in a different uniform.

[D-train]

This means, knowing how cheap our FO is - the only way we get Snell of all the Snell lovers out there is if we end up trading Castillo as their salaries will essentially cancel each other out making it a wash or a small add onto the current books in terms of Snell. Seeing their trades to date - this makes me a little nervous in that I worry they will just basically dump Castillo for garbage just to get someone to take on all the salary so we get Zero in return whereas if we traded one of the younger arms we'd actually get something of legit value back in return to help our offense, not to mention maintain 4 elite arms at the top of our rotation for a few years. We know that can't happen though as the FO couldn't have decided this late in the game to add 30mill in salary when they've gone out of their way to cut.

Really all it tells me is that Bowden enjoys blowing smoke up fans asses and it worked. There were hundreds of posts in response last night...

[seattlefan-daBronx]

This means, knowing how cheap our FO is - the only way we get Snell of all the Snell lovers out there is if we end up trading Castillo as their salaries will essentially cancel each other out making it a wash or a small add onto the current books in terms of Snell. Seeing their trades to date - this makes me a little nervous in that I worry they will just basically dump Castillo for garbage just to get someone to take on all the salary so we get Zero in return whereas if we traded one of the younger arms we'd actually get something of legit value back in return to help our offense, not to mention maintain 4 elite arms at the top of our rotation for a few years. We know that can't happen though as the FO couldn't have decided this late in the game to add 30mill in salary when they've gone out of their way to cut.

Really all it tells me is that Bowden enjoys blowing smoke up fans asses and it worked. There were hundreds of posts in response last night...

HA! so true. How's the ride brother!?!?! I'm jealous.