Post Mortem: Seahawks v Christian McCaffrey

DanielVogelbach
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Re: Post Mortem: Seahawks v Christian McCaffrey

Post by DanielVogelbach » Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:08 pm

I'm definitely focused on the seeding scenarios, because just look at the Hawks history. When they get #1 they go to the Bowl. When they don't, they don't. Of course, the rule will be broken at some point. One day the Hawks will either make it to the bowl from 2-6 or lose a home game as #1. I actually think #2 with a path through New Orleans would be fine. New Orleans seems like the type of stadium Wilson can win in. I basically just want to avoid the outdoor natural grass cold weather stuff. Give Wilson a dome and he should shine.

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Sibelius Hindemith
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Re: Post Mortem: Seahawks v Christian McCaffrey

Post by Sibelius Hindemith » Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:09 pm

It comes down to Redskins, Packers, and Saints for the 49ers versus Falcons, Eagles, and Vikings for the Seahawks.

I would guess SF has that one locked up.

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D-train
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Re: Post Mortem: Seahawks v Christian McCaffrey

Post by D-train » Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:13 pm

Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:09 pm
It comes down to Redskins, Packers, and Saints for the 49ers versus Falcons, Eagles, and Vikings for the Seahawks.

I would guess SF has that one locked up.
Nope I just ran multiple reasonable scenarios in which we would win the division without beating the forty niners. Vikings need to beat the Packers at home Eagles need to win two easy games.
dt

Michael K.
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Re: Post Mortem: Seahawks v Christian McCaffrey

Post by Michael K. » Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:15 pm

D-train wrote:
Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:13 pm
Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:09 pm
It comes down to Redskins, Packers, and Saints for the 49ers versus Falcons, Eagles, and Vikings for the Seahawks.

I would guess SF has that one locked up.
Nope I just ran multiple reasonable scenarios in which we would win the division without beating the forty niners. Vikings need to beat the Packers at home Eagles need to win two easy games.
The playoff machine is broken.
Still broken. Not correctly applying the record against common opponents tiebreaker. If SEA beats ARZ and SF loses to LA in week 16 but then SF beats SEA in week 17, SF almost surely wins the division based on strength of victory. @FiveThirtyEight handles this correctly.

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D-train
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Re: Post Mortem: Seahawks v Christian McCaffrey

Post by D-train » Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:43 pm

Michael K. wrote:
Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:15 pm
D-train wrote:
Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:13 pm
Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:09 pm
It comes down to Redskins, Packers, and Saints for the 49ers versus Falcons, Eagles, and Vikings for the Seahawks.

I would guess SF has that one locked up.
Nope I just ran multiple reasonable scenarios in which we would win the division without beating the forty niners. Vikings need to beat the Packers at home Eagles need to win two easy games.
The playoff machine is broken.
Still broken. Not correctly applying the record against common opponents tiebreaker. If SEA beats ARZ and SF loses to LA in week 16 but then SF beats SEA in week 17, SF almost surely wins the division based on strength of victory. @FiveThirtyEight handles this correctly.
I switched to the non broken machine. See my new link

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/
dt

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Sibelius Hindemith
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Re: Post Mortem: Seahawks v Christian McCaffrey

Post by Sibelius Hindemith » Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:58 pm

The teams SF has beaten currently have a 2.5 game lead over the teams the Seahawks have beaten, so it's certainly possible to catch up.
D-train wrote:
Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:13 pm
Eagles need to win two easy games.
Don't they play the Cowboys next week-end?

ThePro
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Re: Post Mortem: Seahawks v Christian McCaffrey

Post by ThePro » Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:15 pm

Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:09 pm
It comes down to Redskins, Packers, and Saints for the 49ers versus Falcons, Eagles, and Vikings for the Seahawks.

I would guess SF has that one locked up.
Seahawks played the Falcons and Saints . It would be the combined win total of GB/WAS vs PHIL/MINN.

As it stands now 17- 14 in favor of Seahawks. What it comes down to is this. Because of the 3 win Redskins some are already conceding the strength of victory to the Hawks. If you are not willing to do that until season is over ( which is wise) 49ers have a chance still even if Hawks win and they lose next weekend

Michael K.
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Re: Post Mortem: Seahawks v Christian McCaffrey

Post by Michael K. » Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:23 pm

Sounds too confusing. I guess we should just win out then. :D

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D-train
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Re: Post Mortem: Seahawks v Christian McCaffrey

Post by D-train » Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:39 pm

I bet the 49ers will beat the Rams making this 2 hours of Our Lives completely wasted
dt

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Sibelius Hindemith
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Re: Post Mortem: Seahawks v Christian McCaffrey

Post by Sibelius Hindemith » Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:46 pm

ThePro wrote:
Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:15 pm
Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:09 pm
It comes down to Redskins, Packers, and Saints for the 49ers versus Falcons, Eagles, and Vikings for the Seahawks.

I would guess SF has that one locked up.
Seahawks played the Falcons and Saints . It would be the combined win total of GB/WAS vs PHIL/MINN.
Why wouldn't you count the Falcons who the Seahawks beat and the Saints who the 49ers beat?

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