So it begins, The official Hot Stove League Thread 2024-25 Offseason

[GL_Storm]

Most of the league are sitting on their hands. This might be the slowest offseason ever.

[Pharmabro]

They offered more to Santana according to MLB rumors but you can’t make them sign

Vs.

Finishing your career out at home in Cleveland where it all started? The way I hear it, tHe Cleveland team came in at the last minute after the Naylor trade and it came together quick and Seattle was for sure up until that point.

[Donn Beach]

ESPN grading the rangers moves. Getting intrigued with them. They aren't major moves but add them up and they could have something. The rangers are without a broadcast contract, but they are still out there busting moves. At this point they have to be the favorites?

It seemed like the Rangers' positional player group was more or less set after they added slugger Jake Burger and catcher Kyle Higashioka early in the offseason. When Texas acquired Burger from Miami, rumors were already out there that Lowe was a trade candidate but the roster looked pretty good as it was, and I'm not a fan of contending teams making cost-cutting moves unless it's part of a series of maneuvers that improves the near-term baseline.

The news that Lowe was being shipped to the Nationals for Garcia came out Sunday evening. In a vacuum, I didn't love the move because it violated that aforementioned precept but I didn't hate it that much because Garcia is a legitimate candidate to assume a high-leverage role, making this more than a straight salary dump.

It also seemed likely that the deal was a precursor to something else and that turned out to be the late-night/pre-dawn news that Pederson had agreed to a pact with the Rangers. Now it all makes sense, and the Rangers are in a better place. In an AL West that is there for the taking, a modest upgrade matters a lot and taken as a whole, these moves might prove to be more than a marginal upgrade.

[Donn Beach]

Okay, I'm predicting the rangers sign sasaki

The Rangers met with Roki Sasaki in person last week. Chris Young said the meeting went well, but he did not want to elaborate more out of respect for him and his process

"We really enjoyed our time, but that's about the extent of anything I will say on that today.

[D-train]

They offered more to Santana according to MLB rumors but you can’t make them sign

What is crazy about is that every MLB player isn't thoroughly impressed by the brilliant inspiring 54% Philosophy. You would think they would be will to accept millions under market value to be a part of something so brilliant and revolutionary. I guess Garver is the only gut that got how amazing and trend setting Jerry is.

[Pharmabro]

Another day of nothing.

[rockycola]

Another day of nothing.

It's like Stanton, Hollander and Dipoto all have a crippling case of spend and trade constipation.

[harmony]

If free agent hitters won't come to Seattle, the Mariners may need to thin out the farm to fill out the lineup while staying within the rumored budget.

To that end, let's examine trades based on Baseball Trade Values values (listed in parentheses in millions of dollars from that player's most recent BTV trade):

2B Ryan Bliss (14.5)
OF Jonny Farmelo (21.7)
Total surplus value (36.2)

to Tampa Bay for

2B Brandon Lowe (13.7) [$10.5 million in 2025, $11.5 million club option in 2025 with $500,000 buyout]
1B Yandy Diaz (23.4) [$10 million in 2025, $12 millon club option in 2026 with no buyout]
Total surplus value (37.1)

The Rays get a high-ceiling outfield prospect and an infield replacement while shedding their two highest salaries.

C Harry Ford (19.5)
3B Ben Williamson (7.0)
Total surplus value (26.5)

to Philadelphia for

3B Alec Bohm (25.5) [projected 2025 salary of $8.1 million with two years of team control]
Total surplus value (25.5)

The Phillies groom a replacement for J.T. Realmuto and get a lottery ticket at third base (while reducing their luxury tax)

SS Michael Arroyo (13.7)
OF Mitch Haniger (-15.5) [$17.5 million in 2025 plus $1 million assignment bonus]
Round A Comp Balance Pick No. 33 (4.4)
Total surplus value (2.6)

to Colorado for

Round B Comp Balance Pick No. 76 (2.0)
Total surplus value (2.0)

Much like the Atlanta Braves taking on salary to acquire Jarred Kelenic, the Rockies pay $15+ million for the rights to promising shortstop prospect Michael Arroyo while moving up in the draft. Seattle's Round A pick currently is No. 33 while Colorado's Round B pick sits at No. 76.

Diaz, Lowe and Bohm have a combined 2025 salary of $28.6 million with team control through 2026 (but no guaranteed commitment for 2026).

The Mariners would take on Haniger's $1 million assignment bonus but subtract his disputed 2025 salary of $15.5 million to $17.5 million.

The net result would get the Mariners within the $16 million the team reportedly has to spend this offseason. The M's might have a few million left over for a bullpen arm or two.

The lineups (banking on a bounceback from J.P. Crawford):

SS J.P. Crawford
CF Julio Rodriguez
1B Yandy Diaz
C Cal Raleigh
3B Alec Bohm
LF Luke Raley
DH Randy Arozarena
2B Brandon Lowe
RF Victor Robles

Against lefthanders:

SS J.P. Crawford
CF Julio Rodriguez
1B Yandy Diaz
C Cal Raleigh
3B Alec Bohm
LF Randy Arozarena
DH Mitch Garver
2B Brandon Lowe/Dylan Moore
RF Victor Robles

The trades would cost the Mariners six years of Ryan Bliss and their No. 4, No. 9, No. 12 and No. 15 prospects at MLB.com. However, the M's would retain Colt Emerson, Cole Young, Lazaro Montes and Felnin Celesten, among others. By 2027 the top prospects should be ready after the expirations of team control over Crawford, Lowe, Bohm, Diaz, Robles and Arozarena.

Let me take cover before you fire off your responses.

[Seattle or Bust]

If free agent hitters won't come to Seattle, the Mariners may need to thin out the farm to fill out the lineup while staying within the rumored budget.

To that end, let's exam trades based on Baseball Trade Values values (listed in millions of dollars from that player's most recent BTV trade):

2B Ryan Bliss (14.5)
OF Johnny Farmelo (21.7)
Total surplus value (36.2)

to Tampa Bay for

2B Brandon Lowe (13.7) [$10.5 million in 2025, $11.5 million club option in 2025 with $500,000 buyout]
1B Yandy Diaz (23.4) [$10 million in 2025, $12 millon club option in 2026 with no buyout]
Total surplus value (37.1)

The Rays get a high-ceiling outfield prospect and an infield replacement while shedding their two highest-paid players.

C Harry Ford (19.5)
3B Ben Williamson (7.0)
Total surplus value (26.5)

to Philadelphia for

3B Alec Bohm (25.5) [projected 2025 salary of $8.1 million with two years of team control]
Total surplus value (25.5)

The Phillies groom a replacement for J.T. Realmuto and get a lottery ticket at third base (while reducing their luxury tax)

SS Michael Arroyo (13.7)
OF Mitch Haniger (-15.5) [$17.5 million in 2025 plus $1 million assignment bonus]
Round A Comp Balance Pick (4.4)
Total surplus value (2.6)

to Colorado for

Round B Comp Balance Pick (2.0)
Total surplus value (2.0)

Much like the Atlanta Braves taking on salary to acquire Jarred Kelenic, the Rockies pay $15+ million for the rights to promising shortstop prospect Michael Arroyo (and to move up in the draft).

Diaz, Lowe and Bohm have a combined 2025 salary of $28.6 million with team control through 2026 (but no guaranteed commitment for 2026).

The Mariners would take on Haniger's $1 million assignment bonus but subtract his disputed 2025 salary of $15.5 million to $17.5 million.

The net result would get the Mariners within the $16 million the team reportedly has to spend this offseason. The M's might have a few million left over for a bullpen arm or two.

The lineups (banking on a bounceback from J.P. Crawford):

SS J.P. Crawford
CF Julio Rodriguez
1B Yandy Diaz
C Cal Raleigh
3B Alec Bohm
RF Luke Raley
DH Randy Arozarena
2B Brandon Lowe
LF Victor Robles

Against lefthanders:

SS J.P. Crawford
CF Julio Rodriguez
1B Yandy Diaz
C Cal Raleigh
3B Alec Bohm
RF Randy Arozarena
DH Mitch Garver
2B Brandon Lowe/Dylan Moore
LF Victor Robles

The trades would cost the Mariners six years of Ryan Bliss and their No. 4, No. 9, No. 12 and No. 15 prospects at MLB.com. However, the M's would retain Colt Emerson, Cole Young, Lazaro Montes and Felnin Celesten, among others. By 2027 the top prospects should be ready after the expirations of team control over Crawford, Lowe, Bohm, Diaz and Arozarena.

Let me take cover before you fire off your responses.

I like the concepts.

I just don't think it would cost the M's Farmelo and Ford to land Diaz and Bohm. MLBTV far overvalues both IMO.

Diaz is heading into his age 33 season and struggled putting up just 1.6 bWAR last year. The Rays also tend to take on more bulk deals. So you could probably land Diaz and Lowe for a collection of 10-30 prospects that Tampa covets.

From 5/1 on, Bohm was just a 96 OPS+ bat w. a .713 OPS. He was benched late in the season... teams know that. He's been a 3-WAR player once in his career and put up just 1.7 WAR over a 4-month period last season. He's also under control for just 2 years and his $$ isn't negligible.

[GL_Storm]

If free agent hitters won't come to Seattle, the Mariners may need to thin out the farm to fill out the lineup while staying within the rumored budget.

To that end, let's exam trades based on Baseball Trade Values values (listed in parentheses in millions of dollars from that player's most recent BTV trade):

2B Ryan Bliss (14.5)
OF Jonny Farmelo (21.7)
Total surplus value (36.2)

to Tampa Bay for

2B Brandon Lowe (13.7) [$10.5 million in 2025, $11.5 million club option in 2025 with $500,000 buyout]
1B Yandy Diaz (23.4) [$10 million in 2025, $12 millon club option in 2026 with no buyout]
Total surplus value (37.1)

The Rays get a high-ceiling outfield prospect and an infield replacement while shedding their two highest salaries.

C Harry Ford (19.5)
3B Ben Williamson (7.0)
Total surplus value (26.5)

to Philadelphia for

3B Alec Bohm (25.5) [projected 2025 salary of $8.1 million with two years of team control]
Total surplus value (25.5)

The Phillies groom a replacement for J.T. Realmuto and get a lottery ticket at third base (while reducing their luxury tax)

SS Michael Arroyo (13.7)
OF Mitch Haniger (-15.5) [$17.5 million in 2025 plus $1 million assignment bonus]
Round A Comp Balance Pick (4.4)
Total surplus value (2.6)

to Colorado for

Round B Comp Balance Pick (2.0)
Total surplus value (2.0)

Much like the Atlanta Braves taking on salary to acquire Jarred Kelenic, the Rockies pay $15+ million for the rights to promising shortstop prospect Michael Arroyo (and to move up in the draft).

Diaz, Lowe and Bohm have a combined 2025 salary of $28.6 million with team control through 2026 (but no guaranteed commitment for 2026).

The Mariners would take on Haniger's $1 million assignment bonus but subtract his disputed 2025 salary of $15.5 million to $17.5 million.

The net result would get the Mariners within the $16 million the team reportedly has to spend this offseason. The M's might have a few million left over for a bullpen arm or two.

The lineups (banking on a bounceback from J.P. Crawford):

SS J.P. Crawford
CF Julio Rodriguez
1B Yandy Diaz
C Cal Raleigh
3B Alec Bohm
RF Luke Raley
DH Randy Arozarena
2B Brandon Lowe
LF Victor Robles

Against lefthanders:

SS J.P. Crawford
CF Julio Rodriguez
1B Yandy Diaz
C Cal Raleigh
3B Alec Bohm
RF Randy Arozarena
DH Mitch Garver
2B Brandon Lowe/Dylan Moore
LF Victor Robles

The trades would cost the Mariners six years of Ryan Bliss and their No. 4, No. 9, No. 12 and No. 15 prospects at MLB.com. However, the M's would retain Colt Emerson, Cole Young, Lazaro Montes and Felnin Celesten, among others. By 2027 the top prospects should be ready after the expirations of team control over Crawford, Lowe, Bohm, Diaz and Arozarena.

Let me take cover before you fire off your responses.

They aren't doing any of these.