So it begins, The official Hot Stove League Thread 2024-25 Offseason

[harmony]

If free agent hitters won't come to Seattle, the Mariners may need to thin out the farm to fill out the lineup while staying within the rumored budget.

To that end, let's exam trades based on Baseball Trade Values values (listed in millions of dollars from that player's most recent BTV trade):

2B Ryan Bliss (14.5)
OF Johnny Farmelo (21.7)
Total surplus value (36.2)

to Tampa Bay for

2B Brandon Lowe (13.7) [$10.5 million in 2025, $11.5 million club option in 2025 with $500,000 buyout]
1B Yandy Diaz (23.4) [$10 million in 2025, $12 millon club option in 2026 with no buyout]
Total surplus value (37.1)

The Rays get a high-ceiling outfield prospect and an infield replacement while shedding their two highest-paid players.

C Harry Ford (19.5)
3B Ben Williamson (7.0)
Total surplus value (26.5)

to Philadelphia for

3B Alec Bohm (25.5) [projected 2025 salary of $8.1 million with two years of team control]
Total surplus value (25.5)

The Phillies groom a replacement for J.T. Realmuto and get a lottery ticket at third base (while reducing their luxury tax)

SS Michael Arroyo (13.7)
OF Mitch Haniger (-15.5) [$17.5 million in 2025 plus $1 million assignment bonus]
Round A Comp Balance Pick (4.4)
Total surplus value (2.6)

to Colorado for

Round B Comp Balance Pick (2.0)
Total surplus value (2.0)

Much like the Atlanta Braves taking on salary to acquire Jarred Kelenic, the Rockies pay $15+ million for the rights to promising shortstop prospect Michael Arroyo (and to move up in the draft).

Diaz, Lowe and Bohm have a combined 2025 salary of $28.6 million with team control through 2026 (but no guaranteed commitment for 2026).

The Mariners would take on Haniger's $1 million assignment bonus but subtract his disputed 2025 salary of $15.5 million to $17.5 million.

The net result would get the Mariners within the $16 million the team reportedly has to spend this offseason. The M's might have a few million left over for a bullpen arm or two.

The lineups (banking on a bounceback from J.P. Crawford):

SS J.P. Crawford
CF Julio Rodriguez
1B Yandy Diaz
C Cal Raleigh
3B Alec Bohm
RF Luke Raley
DH Randy Arozarena
2B Brandon Lowe
LF Victor Robles

Against lefthanders:

SS J.P. Crawford
CF Julio Rodriguez
1B Yandy Diaz
C Cal Raleigh
3B Alec Bohm
RF Randy Arozarena
DH Mitch Garver
2B Brandon Lowe/Dylan Moore
LF Victor Robles

The trades would cost the Mariners six years of Ryan Bliss and their No. 4, No. 9, No. 12 and No. 15 prospects at MLB.com. However, the M's would retain Colt Emerson, Cole Young, Lazaro Montes and Felnin Celesten, among others. By 2027 the top prospects should be ready after the expirations of team control over Crawford, Lowe, Bohm, Diaz and Arozarena.

Let me take cover before you fire off your responses.

I like the concepts.

I just don't think it would cost the M's Farmelo and Ford to land Diaz and Bohm. MLBTV far overvalues both IMO.

Diaz is heading into his age 33 season and struggled putting up just 1.6 bWAR last year. The Rays also tend to take on more bulk deals. So you could probably land Diaz and Lowe for a collection of 10-30 prospects that Tampa covets.

From 5/1 on, Bohm was just a 96 OPS+ bat w. a .713 OPS. He was benched late in the season... teams know that. He's been a 3-WAR player once in his career and put up just 1.7 WAR over a 4-month period last season. He's also under control for just 2 years and his $$ isn't negligible.

Indeed Alec Bohm emits an uncomfortable Ty France vibe.

Bohm and France were All Stars in their age 27 seasons, Bohm finishing this year with 3.0 bWAR in 143 games and France finishing 2022 with 3.1 bWAR in 140 games.

Through their age 27 seasons Bohm has posted 3.8 bWAR and a 105 OPS+ in 599 games while France had posted 8.1 fWAR and a 122 OPS+ in 404 games.

Thank you for the feedback.

[D-train]

These automatic tips are outright theft! I see few over here.

Yeah will never forget the expectation of a tip for handing me an $18 can of beer in Spring training.

[D-train]

If free agent hitters won't come to Seattle, the Mariners may need to thin out the farm to fill out the lineup while staying within the rumored budget.

To that end, let's exam trades based on Baseball Trade Values values (listed in millions of dollars from that player's most recent BTV trade):

2B Ryan Bliss (14.5)
OF Johnny Farmelo (21.7)
Total surplus value (36.2)

to Tampa Bay for

2B Brandon Lowe (13.7) [$10.5 million in 2025, $11.5 million club option in 2025 with $500,000 buyout]
1B Yandy Diaz (23.4) [$10 million in 2025, $12 millon club option in 2026 with no buyout]
Total surplus value (37.1)

The Rays get a high-ceiling outfield prospect and an infield replacement while shedding their two highest-paid players.

C Harry Ford (19.5)
3B Ben Williamson (7.0)
Total surplus value (26.5)

to Philadelphia for

3B Alec Bohm (25.5) [projected 2025 salary of $8.1 million with two years of team control]
Total surplus value (25.5)

The Phillies groom a replacement for J.T. Realmuto and get a lottery ticket at third base (while reducing their luxury tax)

SS Michael Arroyo (13.7)
OF Mitch Haniger (-15.5) [$17.5 million in 2025 plus $1 million assignment bonus]
Round A Comp Balance Pick (4.4)
Total surplus value (2.6)

to Colorado for

Round B Comp Balance Pick (2.0)
Total surplus value (2.0)

Much like the Atlanta Braves taking on salary to acquire Jarred Kelenic, the Rockies pay $15+ million for the rights to promising shortstop prospect Michael Arroyo (and to move up in the draft).

Diaz, Lowe and Bohm have a combined 2025 salary of $28.6 million with team control through 2026 (but no guaranteed commitment for 2026).

The Mariners would take on Haniger's $1 million assignment bonus but subtract his disputed 2025 salary of $15.5 million to $17.5 million.

The net result would get the Mariners within the $16 million the team reportedly has to spend this offseason. The M's might have a few million left over for a bullpen arm or two.

The lineups (banking on a bounceback from J.P. Crawford):

SS J.P. Crawford
CF Julio Rodriguez
1B Yandy Diaz
C Cal Raleigh
3B Alec Bohm
RF Luke Raley
DH Randy Arozarena
2B Brandon Lowe
LF Victor Robles

Against lefthanders:

SS J.P. Crawford
CF Julio Rodriguez
1B Yandy Diaz
C Cal Raleigh
3B Alec Bohm
RF Randy Arozarena
DH Mitch Garver
2B Brandon Lowe/Dylan Moore
LF Victor Robles

The trades would cost the Mariners six years of Ryan Bliss and their No. 4, No. 9, No. 12 and No. 15 prospects at MLB.com. However, the M's would retain Colt Emerson, Cole Young, Lazaro Montes and Felnin Celesten, among others. By 2027 the top prospects should be ready after the expirations of team control over Crawford, Lowe, Bohm, Diaz and Arozarena.

Let me take cover before you fire off your responses.

I like the concepts.

I just don't think it would cost the M's Farmelo and Ford to land Diaz and Bohm. MLBTV far overvalues both IMO.

Diaz is heading into his age 33 season and struggled putting up just 1.6 bWAR last year. The Rays also tend to take on more bulk deals. So you could probably land Diaz and Lowe for a collection of 10-30 prospects that Tampa covets.

From 5/1 on, Bohm was just a 96 OPS+ bat w. a .713 OPS. He was benched late in the season... teams know that. He's been a 3-WAR player once in his career and put up just 1.7 WAR over a 4-month period last season. He's also under control for just 2 years and his $$ isn't negligible.

Indeed Alec Bohm emits an uncomfortable Ty France vibe.

Bohm and France were All Stars in their age 27 seasons, Bohm finishing this year with 3.0 bWAR in 143 games and France finishing 2022 with 3.1 bWAR in 140 games.

Through their age 27 seasons Bohm has posted 3.8 bWAR and a 105 OPS+ in 599 games while France had posted 8.1 fWAR and a 122 OPS+ in 404 games.

Thank you for the feedback.

It was a good well thought out plan, Doug. Thanks for sharing it.

[Pharmabro]

Possible trade with the Jays. BJs traded for Giminez from Cleveland so they have an interesting Infielder who had a 124 OPS+ in about 90 ABs. He is listed as a 1B/2B/3B. He had 0.7 WAR in those 86 PAs. So he is a + defender at 2B.

Will Wagner trade calc says 6M. Luis trade calc says 7.7M.

So trade Luis Castillo save 24.125M/year

Will Wagner* 3B

Trade for Yandy1B, and B. Lowe*2B Adds 20.5M
Go sign AJ Minter* for 2 years 14M
Sign Roki!

1. Robles RF
2. Raley* DH
3. JRod CF
4. Cal** C
5. Yandy 1B
6. Lowe* 2B
7. Randy RF
8. Wagner* 3B
9. JP* SS

Bench Garver, Moore, +2

I'd love to see it happen!

[D-train]

Possible trade with the Jays. BJs traded for Giminez from Cleveland so they have an interesting Infielder who had a 124 OPS+ in about 90 ABs. He is listed as a 1B/2B/3B. He had 0.7 WAR in those 86 PAs. So he is a + defender at 2B.

Will Wagner trade calc says 6M. Luis trade calc says 7.7M.

So trade Luis Castillo save 24.125M/year

Will Wagner* 3B

Trade for Yandy1B, and B. Lowe*2B Adds 20.5M
Go sign AJ Minter* for 2 years 14M
Sign Roki!

1. Robles RF
2. Raley* DH
3. JRod CF
4. Cal** C
5. Yandy 1B
6. Lowe* 2B
7. Randy RF
8. Wagner* 3B
9. JP* SS

Bench Garver, Moore, +2

I'd love to see it happen!

Love it!

[GL_Storm]

Possible trade with the Jays. BJs traded for Giminez from Cleveland so they have an interesting Infielder who had a 124 OPS+ in about 90 ABs. He is listed as a 1B/2B/3B. He had 0.7 WAR in those 86 PAs. So he is a + defender at 2B.

Will Wagner trade calc says 6M. Luis trade calc says 7.7M.

So trade Luis Castillo save 24.125M/year

Will Wagner* 3B

Trade for Yandy1B, and B. Lowe*2B Adds 20.5M
Go sign AJ Minter* for 2 years 14M
Sign Roki!

1. Robles RF
2. Raley* DH
3. JRod CF
4. Cal** C
5. Yandy 1B
6. Lowe* 2B
7. Randy RF
8. Wagner* 3B
9. JP* SS

Bench Garver, Moore, +2

I'd love to see it happen!

Wagner's kind of interesting. He was an 18th round draft pick and those guys don't usually become major league regulars, but his minor league track record shows a hit tool and I just kind of wonder if he's one of those guys with the internal motor to push him farther than his tools would ordinarily project. But I'm probably just projecting my own wishes on what I would like the player to be.

Also, he's Billy Wagner's son, which isn't especially relevant but maybe something people would like to know.

[D-train]

Bizarre that an elite HOF reliever would spawn a Major league INFer. Baseball genetics are a trip.

[Seattle or Bust]

Bizarre that an elite HOF reliever would spawn a Major league INFer. Baseball genetics are a trip.

I mean... ya genetics help... but he probably spawned with a baseball in his hand and had the world's best training available from when he could walk.

[Sexymarinersfan]

Don't blame players for not wanting to sign in this Lib state. So done with this organization.

[D-train]

Bizarre that an elite HOF reliever would spawn a Major league INFer. Baseball genetics are a trip.

I mean... ya genetics help... but he probably spawned with a baseball in his hand and had the world's best training available from when he could walk.

But wouldn't he be focused on teaching him to pitch. I am sure I am wrong. Yep I am. Bobby Whit and Jr.