Possible good Geno news.

[D-train]

https://www.si.com/nfl/seahawks/geno-sm ... fl-combine

[trharder]

Maybe you all understand the cap thing with Geno, but I asked chat GPT to explain it to me.
I've been thinking maybe it's better to just take the cap hit this year and not commit to Geno with an extension and no one agrees with that, that I've heard. My questions in bold.

why does extending geno smith save the seahawks $24 million in cap space?

ChatGPT said:
Extending Geno Smith saves the Seattle Seahawks $24 million in cap space because it allows them to restructure his contract and spread out his cap hit over multiple years, reducing his immediate impact on the 2024 salary cap.

Here's how it works:
Current Cap Hit: Geno Smith was set to have a $31.2 million cap hit in 2024 under his existing contract.
Guaranteed Money: Only $12.7 million of his 2024 salary is guaranteed, meaning the Seahawks could cut him and save cap space, but that would leave dead money on the books.
Extension Lowers Cap Hit: By extending Smith, the Seahawks can convert part of his salary and bonuses into a signing bonus, which can then be spread out over the length of the new contract. This significantly reduces his cap hit in 2024.
Cap Savings Estimate: Reports indicate an extension could lower his 2024 cap hit to around $7 million, saving roughly $24 million.
This strategy is commonly used by NFL teams to create short-term cap relief while keeping key players on the roster. However, it does push some of the financial burden into future seasons

You said:
how long an extension would be necessary for number 4?

ChatGPT said:
To lower Geno Smith’s 2024 cap hit to around $7 million and save $24 million, the Seahawks would likely need to extend him by at least 3 to 4 years beyond his current deal. Here’s why:

Breaking Down the Math
Current 2024 Cap Hit: $31.2 million
Signing Bonus Proration: If the Seahawks convert, say, $24 million of his salary into a signing bonus, they can spread that amount evenly over the new contract length (up to a max of 5 years).
Extension Length Impact:
3-year extension (total of 4 years left) → $24M signing bonus divided by 4 years = $6M per year in cap hit.
4-year extension (total of 5 years left) → $24M signing bonus divided by 5 years = $4.8M per year in cap hit.
How This Gets His 2024 Cap Hit to $7M
Base salary (likely reduced to $1.2M, the veteran minimum).
Signing bonus proration (~$6M if extended for 3 years or ~$4.8M if extended for 4).
Any incentives would be pushed into future years.
Conclusion
To achieve the full $24M savings, a 4-year extension (total of 5 years left) would be the safest option. However, if the Seahawks prefer more flexibility, a 3-year extension (4 total years left) might still work while keeping the long-term commitment slightly shorter.

You said:
what's the cap hit if they extend geno for three more years, but then cut him after 2025?

ChatGPT said:
If the Seahawks extend Geno Smith for three more years (through 2027) and then cut him after the 2025 season, the key factor is how the signing bonus is structured and how the remaining prorated money accelerates into the cap.

Step 1: Extension Assumptions
Extension Length: 3 extra years (total of 4 years, through 2027).
Signing Bonus Conversion: Seahawks convert $24 million of his 2024 salary into a signing bonus to lower his 2024 cap hit.
Prorated Bonus: The $24M signing bonus is spread across 4 years (2024-2027) → $6M per year in cap hit.
Step 2: Cap Hits Before Release
2024 Cap Hit:

Base Salary: ~$1.2M (vet minimum)
Signing Bonus Proration: $6M
Total: ~$7.2M
2025 Cap Hit:

Base Salary: TBD (likely ~$15M+)
Signing Bonus Proration: $6M
Total: ~$21M+ (estimate)
Step 3: Dead Money if Cut After 2025
If the Seahawks cut Geno after the 2025 season, the remaining unamortized signing bonus accelerates into the 2026 cap.

By end of 2025, the Seahawks will have accounted for:

2024 bonus proration ($6M)
2025 bonus proration ($6M)
That leaves $12M in dead cap (for 2026 & 2027 bonus proration).
If cut in 2026:

Dead Money (2026): $12M
Cap Savings (if no guarantees remain): Whatever his base salary would have been in 2026.
If the Seahawks designate him as a Post-June 1 cut, the dead money would be split:

2026 Dead Money: $6M
2027 Dead Money: $6M
Final Takeaway
If cut pre-June 1, 2026, the dead cap hit is $12M in 2026.
If cut post-June 1, 2026, the dead cap hit is $6M in 2026 & $6M in 2027.
Cap savings depend on the structure of his 2025/2026 salaries—if non-guaranteed, they save that amount.

[D-train]

Holy shit. Just that simple. How about we just cut his ass an be done with it?

[Sibelius Hindemith]

How about giving him a chance to show what he can do with some decent pass protection? If they can't figure out how to do that, then yeah, cut or trade him.

[trharder]

Holy shit. Just that simple. How about we just cut his ass an be done with it?

I'm fine with that, but it doesn't sound like Schneider has any plan outside of Geno for at least 2025.
The "expert" Geno lovers on X say we have to extend him to save cap space.
Personally, I think it's a lot more likely we've seen the ceiling for Geno and he'll just go down from
here, new O-line or not.

[trharder]

How about giving him a chance to show what he can do with some decent pass protection? If they can't figure out how to do that, then yeah, cut or trade him.

Yeah sure. one more year. take the cap hit this year instead of kicking it down the road again.
If he leaves after 2025 we'd get a compensatory pick for him.
If the front office still loves Geno after 2025, why would the Seahawks be in any worse position to sign Geno
than other teams? Does anyone really think 2026, 36 yo Geno is going to be the hottest available FA QB?

I don't want to see the Seahawks keep Geno as a stopgap, but go ahead and give him a new contract to save cap anyway.

[D-train]

I like the idea of not kicking the can down the road with cap hits but if we take it this year there will be no room for FA O line upgrades. Will have to hope that JS finally drafts one or two that is actually good.

[Pharmabro]

Holy shit. Just that simple. How about we just cut his ass an be done with it?

^

[Pharmabro]

We need to keep him at a much-discounted rate. If you can get him for 5-7-8 million, sure fine. He actually can get some big yards with his legs. He just does not do it enough. I am warming up to the idea of Justin Fields. He can run, He is improving every year with completion %, and TD/INT ratio. 58.9% to 65.8%: and from 7TD/10Ints to 5TD/1Int. The combine had him at a 4.45 40, and he averaged 39 yards a game on the ground in his 6 starts.

For a comparison Geno only averaged 16 yards a game on the ground. Although he has been more accurate 70.4% last year but just 21TD/15 Int ratio.

I think Getting Fields on a rookie-style deal would be great.

[trharder]

We need to keep him at a much-discounted rate. If you can get him for 5-7-8 million, sure fine. He actually can get some big yards with his legs. He just does not do it enough. I am warming up to the idea of Justin Fields. He can run, He is improving every year with completion %, and TD/INT ratio. 58.9% to 65.8%: and from 7TD/10Ints to 5TD/1Int. The combine had him at a 4.45 40, and he averaged 39 yards a game on the ground in his 6 starts.
For a comparison Geno only averaged 16 yards a game on the ground. Although he has been more accurate 70.4% last year but just 21TD/15 Int ratio.
I think Getting Fields on a rookie-style deal would be great.

People are saying that not only will Geno not re-sign for a discount, he will want even more than the current 31 million
his current contract says. I don't think there's any way he will sign, or even play, for less than that. That's another reason
why I say just ride the current contract. I like Fields too as I really like QBs that run. But I think the Steelers might keep
him and RW is the one being cut.