Will Cal be #1?

[Donn Beach]

Bradford Doolittle and ESPN on the MVP race, actually giving it to Cal but he needs to keep hitting home runs.

Sizing up the race: This race is closer than AXE and the odds suggest. In fact, it would not surprise me if they are wrong altogether. Either way, the chase isn't over.

It shouldn't be controversial to suggest that Judge has had the better offensive season despite Raleigh's historic home run pace and league-leading RBI total. His percentages are decidedly better across the board, and even if you contextualize for playing venue, Judge has a 40-point edge in OPS+ and, at FanGraphs, a 37-point bulge in wRC+. Raleigh has played in more games, but Judge has still created 31 more runs while using 68 fewer outs. Judge also leads AL hitters in both win probability added and championship probability added. Raleigh ranks fifth in both stats, which are folded into the AXE calculations.

After that, a number of factors tilt toward Raleigh. As a catcher, Raleigh plays a more valuable defensive position and has played it very well. FanGraphs ranks him as the fourth-most valuable defender in the AL. Of course, a chunk of that is due to pitch-framing metrics, which are measured differently at Baseball Reference, which is why Judge has a more commanding lead in that site's version of WAR.

Then we come to factors of narrative. Raleigh might be having the best season a catcher has ever had. He already has crushed the single-season record for home runs by a backstop and is on the cusp of passing the record for switch-hitters set 64 years ago by Mickey-freaking-Mantle. If that happens, and if Raleigh gets to 60 homers -- as a catcher -- and does so on a playoff team, how does he not win MVP?

How it can flip: Raleigh has hit .208 since the All-Star break, and as his season average slips downward, soon to drop under .240, you do wonder if he's vulnerable to an end-of-season crash. He is a catcher after all, and as much as the Mariners try to give him DH days to take the load off, he might be wearing down. If he flails from here and the Mariners miss the playoffs, a typical finish from Judge might be enough to convince voters their heads should never have turned toward Raleigh in the first place.

Prediction: Raleigh breaks Mantle's record, doesn't reach 60 homers, but keeps his numbers just strong enough to fend off Judge at the finish line.

[Pharmabro]

Sunday funday #54 ties for #22nd highest homer total in history!

[Pharmabro]

Twosday 9-16 Ties KGJ for tops in franchise HR mark for the season.

(Ties Griffey X2, and Hack Wilson for the 19th most in MLB history

[Michael K.]

I know records are meant to be broken, but it's tough to watch Griffey's name moved down any list for me. No disrespect to Cal...I love the dude. But The Kid was my hero. I wore my hat backwards during every warm up, I switch hit my first two years in HS because I wanted to swing from the left side! Head Coach finally put an end to it, but you see where I am going here? Loved that dude. It broke me when he forced his way out of town. BROKE me. The funny thing is? I agreed with the organization. I'm curious how much building that new stadium pushed Griffey out, and really curious how much more we would have known if you could get information back then from more than just the Times and PI! But believe it or not? I sided with the organization on that one. And with not paying A Fraud what Texas did.

What I didn't agree with was believing that because it happened in 2001? That we never needed Super Stars again. Sorry, I side barred the discussion. Congrats to Cal, but it's a bit bittersweet for me.

[D-train]

I know records are meant to be broken, but it's tough to watch Griffey's name moved down any list for me. No disrespect to Cal...I love the dude. But The Kid was my hero. I wore my hat backwards during every warm up, I switch hit my first two years in HS because I wanted to swing from the left side! Head Coach finally put an end to it, but you see where I am going here? Loved that dude. It broke me when he forced his way out of town. BROKE me. The funny thing is? I agreed with the organization. I'm curious how much building that new stadium pushed Griffey out, and really curious how much more we would have known if you could get information back then from more than just the Times and PI! But believe it or not? I sided with the organization on that one. And with not paying A Fraud what Texas did.

What I didn't agree with was believing that because it happened in 2001? That we never needed Super Stars again. Sorry, I side barred the discussion. Congrats to Cal, but it's a bit bittersweet for me.

Did Tracey tell you that I saw her in Grocery outlet? She's willing to travel for those deals! ha Lynda loves that place. lol

[Michael K.]

Did Tracey tell you that I saw her in Grocery outlet? She's willing to travel for those deals! ha Lynda loves that place. lol

That's funny....no. I always tell her she spends more money on gas than she saves on groceries! If she was at the Wenatchee GO, it must have been on her prep period. She teaches a cooking class, so I bet she was there shopping for supplies for class. She usually goes to the one on the East Side, and it's just down the road from us.

We love the GO, might as well save $ when you can. I just hate it when I find something I love and then they stop carrying it. They used to have a killer deal on the Dukes pepperonis sticks. The Hatch Chili ones were amazing...and way less expensive than the store. Never seen them again.

I'll have to ask her about seeing you. During the season? I get to work a little after 5 and don't get home until after 6....later if we have a bus trip. So? We don't talk a lot! I should have texted you yesterday. We had a double header with Wenatchee. The same fields I met you at this summer. I am going to text you a link to the schedule now.

[D-train]

Did Tracey tell you that I saw her in Grocery outlet? She's willing to travel for those deals! ha Lynda loves that place. lol

That's funny....no. I always tell her she spends more money on gas than she saves on groceries! If she was at the Wenatchee GO, it must have been on her prep period. She teaches a cooking class, so I bet she was there shopping for supplies for class. She usually goes to the one on the East Side, and it's just down the road from us.

We love the GO, might as well save $ when you can. I just hate it when I find something I love and then they stop carrying it. They used to have a killer deal on the Dukes pepperonis sticks. The Hatch Chili ones were amazing...and way less expensive than the store. Never seen them again.

I'll have to ask her about seeing you. During the season? I get to work a little after 5 and don't get home until after 6....later if we have a bus trip. So? We don't talk a lot! I should have texted you yesterday. We had a double header with Wenatchee. The same fields I met you at this summer. I am going to text you a link to the schedule now.

We were were talking about the timing of your son's Homecoming and the Apple cup. Imagine 5 years ago if someone told you that both would be mid Sept. Insanity!

[Michael K.]

We were were talking about the timing of your son's Homecoming and the Apple cup. Imagine 5 years ago if someone told you that both would be mid Sept. Insanity!

No joke! Strange times we live in these days. I assume I will have to record the game and start watching at damn near 6. Let's see if I can stay off my phone that long. The last time they did HOCO pictures I was watching the game on my phone! But it wasn't the AC. I also watched the Michigan game on my phone during the Luke Combs concert at the Gorge! Technology is a crazy thing.

[Pharmabro]

#57 update ties ARod and Luis Gonzales for 17th

[Pharmabro]

#58 update matching for the 12 most in a season ever with:

Jimmie Foxx 1932
Hank Greenberg 1938
Ryan Howard 2006
Aaron Judge 2024
Mark McGwire 1997