The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason
Re: The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason
$115M for 3 years of Framber Valdez....
$45M for Jorge Polanco...
Ok, forget it. Dipoto's strategy definitely beats buying into that market.
There were still low cost floaters available like Moncada or Arraez, but at least there aren't any obvious black holes besides Refsnyder and Young.
And maybe this is the year the clubhouse vet won't roll over and die.
Young had some flashes. Or Emerson if they want to rush another kid up.
The black holes aren't quite as massive this season, so that's good. With the trade deadline another chance to course correct, if needed.
No doubt this should be a contender though. Especially after we witnessed how much the league competition has fallen off the last few years.
Reason for optimism. Finally. Lol
$45M for Jorge Polanco...
Ok, forget it. Dipoto's strategy definitely beats buying into that market.
There were still low cost floaters available like Moncada or Arraez, but at least there aren't any obvious black holes besides Refsnyder and Young.
And maybe this is the year the clubhouse vet won't roll over and die.
Young had some flashes. Or Emerson if they want to rush another kid up.
The black holes aren't quite as massive this season, so that's good. With the trade deadline another chance to course correct, if needed.
No doubt this should be a contender though. Especially after we witnessed how much the league competition has fallen off the last few years.
Reason for optimism. Finally. Lol
-
Donn Beach
- Posts: 18803
- Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 1:06 am
Re: The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason
Rob Refsnyder is a black hole? Kind of a interesting article on him. It's got some insight into hitting, particularly swinging hard
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/691243 ... atoon-bat/
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/691243 ... atoon-bat/
-
Donn Beach
- Posts: 18803
- Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 1:06 am
Re: The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason
I don't think that link will open so I copied it. I think it explains pretty well really how today's hitters have to sell out looking for certain pitches and swing hard at them. Refsnyder basically evolved into a hard swinger getting some success at the latter part of his career. He's less of a complete hitter but he's become a more productive hitter
Why a 34-year-old platoon bat just signed his biggest contract in the twilight of his career
Chad Jennings
By Chad Jennings
Dec. 23, 2025Updated Dec. 27, 2025
Around the batting cage at Yankee Stadium, the superstars talked hitting while the kid tried to keep up. Alex Rodriguez described the way he split the plate in half. Carlos Beltran explained a similar tactic. Brian McCann, too, had a method of picking his battles and maximizing damage.
Rob Refsnyder, fresh from Triple A, nodded along while a bunch of All-Stars described an approach that ran counter to everything Refsnyder tried to do at the plate. Refsnyder covered every pitch. He was hard to strike out. He was ready for anything. He considered it his greatest strength.
Split the plate in half?
“I kinda understood what that meant,” Refsnyder said.
A decade later, Refsnyder gets it, and it’s made all the difference.
On Monday, four months before his 35th birthday, Refsnyder signed a $6.5-million deal with the Seattle Mariners. It is, by far, the largest contract of his life, and it’s come in the twilight of his career. Refsnyder has never made more than $2.1 million in a season, and he’s spent much of his career playing on minor-league deals or else earning the big-league minimum.
But at an age when so many others are fading from relevance, Refsnyder has only now established himself as a player worth such a commitment.
He is, perhaps, less complete than he used to be, but he’s unmistakably more productive. Since 2022, among players with at least 900 plate appearances, Refsnyder ranks 40th in OPS, just ahead of Fernando Tatis Jr., Alex Bregman and Trea Turner. Almost all of his damage has come with a platoon advantage, but in an era when left-handed pitching is better than ever, Refsnyder has crushed lefties at an elite level.
OPS leaders vs. LHP since 2022 (400 PA)
Aaron Judge
586
1160
Yordan Alvarez
613
986
Paul Goldschmidt
642
973
Yandy Díaz
604
956
Jose Altuve
569
940
Ketel Marte
744
927
Rob Refsnyder
501
924
J.D. Martinez
411
920
Mookie Betts
707
919
William Contreras
644
917
“My swing-and-miss is probably up a good amount from earlier in my career,” Refsnyder said. “But for me to do anything, you have to make these educated guesses.”
He has to split the plate.
Refsnyder’s unusual career arc is about more than a single player’s rise to a late-30s payday. His transformation helps explain an entire industry’s shift in offensive approach. Refsnyder didn’t arrive in the big leagues overmatched so much as outdated. To adapt, he had to make more than mechanical adjustments. He had to overhaul his mindset and embrace his limitations.
In the middle of last season, Refsnyder stood in front of the home dugout at Fenway Park and drew pictures in the dirt. He used the handle of his bat to show pitch locations around a facsimile of home plate.
“For a sweeper or slider to end up right here in the middle of the plate,” he said, “it has to start, like, here.”
Refsnyder drew a spot in the dirt three or four feet in front of the plate and behind where a right-handed batter would stand. It was a pitch that would start, as Refsnyder put it, “behind my ass,” and cross the plate as if the shortstop threw it.
Refsnyder can drive that pitch to left-center, but gearing it up, he explained, requires that he lay off any pitch on the outer half, which leaves him vulnerable to an inside sinker that could drill him in the hip if he doesn’t recognize it early enough.
“If I pick a side of the plate here,” he said, drawing another spot on the outside, “then I want the sinker to come back and end up here.”
He put a dot on the outer half of the plate. Again, it was a pitch Refsnyder can drive, but when he looks for it, he gives up the inside slider and risks becoming Pitching Ninja punchline if he’s fooled by a sweeper.
“You’re looking at this window right here,” he said, drawing a line that’s unbearably precise, leaving most of the plate uncovered. That line is the loss of youthful innocence. It’s the vulnerability Refsnyder has learned to embrace in order to hit modern big league pitching.
“When I was younger and in the minor leagues, you could sit more middle and be in between a couple of different pitches,” he said. “Because the velocity was a little bit lower, and you could cover a couple of different things and be OK. Now, if you’re facing, like, (Bryan) Woo from Seattle, you’re going to look like an a— at some point in your three at-bats. His stuff is too explosive in, and for you to be on time for 97 to 99, you can’t cover 85 and below. It’s, like, impossible.”
Refsnyder has come to realize that he got to the big leagues trying to do the impossible. A fifth-round pick out of the University of Arizona, he rose through minor leagues with modest power and limited speed. His greatest strength was a balanced, all-fields approach, and Refsnyder took pride his ability to work an at-bat, draw some walks, and make contact on absolutely anything.
He made his debut with the New York Yankees in 2015, and seven years later, he was a career .224 hitter with six home runs, nine stolen bases and one full season’s worth of at-bats. Refsnyder was quality depth and little more as he bounced from New York to Toronto, Tampa Bay, Texas, Minnesota and eventually to Boston. Through all those organizations, multiple hitting coaches, and a variety of teammates, Refsnyder not only tweaked his swing, he also began to embrace a new way of thinking about his at-bats.
When Alex Rodriguez talked hitting, Refsnyder listened.
Sure, he could draw some walks, but Refsnyder didn’t have the speed to steal bases, and a passive approach was hindering his ability to take aggressive, impactful swing. He had a knack for making contact, but without a commitment to specific pitch types and locations, Refsnyder was generating weak flyballs and pointless groundballs.
By preparing for anything, he was doing damage against nothing, and it was wasting his career. He was 31 years old and on his way out of the game.
“As an industry we value hitting the ball hard and damage,” Refsnyder said. “So, if I’m not going to steal bases, and I’m not hitting the ball hard, I’m at home. That’s just the way it is.”
Refsnyder’s old approach might have worked wonders in a different era, but it made him easy prey in an age of widespread velocity and lab-created breaking balls.
“I think you see older-generation hitters seeing really bad swing and misses now, and they just think you’re swinging out of your ass,” Refsnyder said.
There was a time when Refsnyder might have agreed, but conversation after conversation forced him to think differently.
When he was with the Twins in 2021, Nelson Cruz told Refsnyder that he looked only for pitches he could crush, and if Cruz didn’t get one of those pitches, he made an out. Cruz was fine with that. Part of Refsnyder thought such an approach was nuts — why accept such vulnerability? — but Cruz was an MVP candidate with 400-plus home runs, while Refsnyder was a bench player trying to avoid the waiver wire.
Eventually, he came to see it this way: Some hitters are so absurdly gifted, they can hit anything at any time, but the mere mortals have to embrace their limitations and accept being exposed.
“Strikeouts are up because they have to be up,” Refsnyder said. “It’s so hard to take an aggressive swing and not lay off other pitches.”
Refsnyder signed his last minor-league contract in December of 2021. The Red Sox called him up the following April, and he’s been in the big leagues ever since, proving himself year after year. Last season, at 34, Refsnyder had the highest hard-hit percentage of his career, and his wRC+ against lefties was, yet again, among the 10 best in MLB.
“He knows he’s a good player,” Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story said. “And when he doesn’t do what he wants, you can see that it bothers him.”
The frustration comes with the territory, and Refsnyder doesn’t mind talking about it. In fact, he loves the conversation. Refsnyder talks hitting in the clubhouse, rehashes at-bats in the dugout, and draws pictures of pitches in the dirt. And every once in a while, one of those conversations will take him back to his early days at Yankee Stadium, when Refsnyder first got the big leagues and began the long process of understanding what it would take to stay there.
“You have to give up something to have good swings,” Refsnyder said. “That’s kind of what they were saying
- Sexymarinersfan
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Re: The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason
I think some people commonly mistake comparing this upcoming team to last year's final playoff squad. I think that is an error. I'd argue what they should be comparing it to is last year's Opening Day roster. That to me is a more accurate measurement in terms of how far we've come. In season additions can be made all the way up to the Trade Deadline along with promotions from the minors. I like where this team is at currently. Just having a healthy Starting 5 again with healthy seasons from Gilbert, Kirby, and Miller alone should be a major boost.bpj wrote: ↑Thu Feb 05, 2026 6:18 am$115M for 3 years of Framber Valdez....
$45M for Jorge Polanco...
Ok, forget it. Dipoto's strategy definitely beats buying into that market.
There were still low cost floaters available like Moncada or Arraez, but at least there aren't any obvious black holes besides Refsnyder and Young.
And maybe this is the year the clubhouse vet won't roll over and die.
Young had some flashes. Or Emerson if they want to rush another kid up.
The black holes aren't quite as massive this season, so that's good. With the trade deadline another chance to course correct, if needed.
No doubt this should be a contender though. Especially after we witnessed how much the league competition has fallen off the last few years.
Reason for optimism. Finally. Lol
Re: The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason
Yeah .959 OPS vs LHPs last season. Even with significant regression he should be above .800. Not worried about DH in the least. Its if the Broken Boys in RF can rebound to 2024 production after nightmare 2025 seasons. Good chance Cole Young is in AAA.Donn Beach wrote: ↑Thu Feb 05, 2026 7:14 amRob Refsnyder is a black hole? Kind of a interesting article on him. It's got some insight into hitting, particularly swinging hard
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/691243 ... atoon-bat/
dt
Re: The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason
That is EXACTLY what I was saying about the absurd obsession with strikeouts. By focusing on limiting Ks you become a less productive hitter. It is so simple. But Jerry says Ks are bad to justify salary dumps after the 2023 season and everybody drinks the Koolaid. lolDonn Beach wrote: ↑Thu Feb 05, 2026 7:25 amI don't think that link will open so I copied it. I think it explains pretty well really how today's hitters have to sell out looking for certain pitches and swing hard at them. Refsnyder basically evolved into a hard swinger getting some success at the latter part of his career. He's less of a complete hitter but he's become a more productive hitter
Why a 34-year-old platoon bat just signed his biggest contract in the twilight of his career
Chad Jennings
By Chad Jennings
Dec. 23, 2025Updated Dec. 27, 2025
Around the batting cage at Yankee Stadium, the superstars talked hitting while the kid tried to keep up. Alex Rodriguez described the way he split the plate in half. Carlos Beltran explained a similar tactic. Brian McCann, too, had a method of picking his battles and maximizing damage.
Rob Refsnyder, fresh from Triple A, nodded along while a bunch of All-Stars described an approach that ran counter to everything Refsnyder tried to do at the plate. Refsnyder covered every pitch. He was hard to strike out. He was ready for anything. He considered it his greatest strength.
Split the plate in half?
“I kinda understood what that meant,” Refsnyder said.
A decade later, Refsnyder gets it, and it’s made all the difference.
On Monday, four months before his 35th birthday, Refsnyder signed a $6.5-million deal with the Seattle Mariners. It is, by far, the largest contract of his life, and it’s come in the twilight of his career. Refsnyder has never made more than $2.1 million in a season, and he’s spent much of his career playing on minor-league deals or else earning the big-league minimum.
But at an age when so many others are fading from relevance, Refsnyder has only now established himself as a player worth such a commitment.
He is, perhaps, less complete than he used to be, but he’s unmistakably more productive. Since 2022, among players with at least 900 plate appearances, Refsnyder ranks 40th in OPS, just ahead of Fernando Tatis Jr., Alex Bregman and Trea Turner. Almost all of his damage has come with a platoon advantage, but in an era when left-handed pitching is better than ever, Refsnyder has crushed lefties at an elite level.
OPS leaders vs. LHP since 2022 (400 PA)
Aaron Judge
586
1160
Yordan Alvarez
613
986
Paul Goldschmidt
642
973
Yandy Díaz
604
956
Jose Altuve
569
940
Ketel Marte
744
927
Rob Refsnyder
501
924
J.D. Martinez
411
920
Mookie Betts
707
919
William Contreras
644
917
“My swing-and-miss is probably up a good amount from earlier in my career,” Refsnyder said. “But for me to do anything, you have to make these educated guesses.”
He has to split the plate.
Refsnyder’s unusual career arc is about more than a single player’s rise to a late-30s payday. His transformation helps explain an entire industry’s shift in offensive approach. Refsnyder didn’t arrive in the big leagues overmatched so much as outdated. To adapt, he had to make more than mechanical adjustments. He had to overhaul his mindset and embrace his limitations.
In the middle of last season, Refsnyder stood in front of the home dugout at Fenway Park and drew pictures in the dirt. He used the handle of his bat to show pitch locations around a facsimile of home plate.
“For a sweeper or slider to end up right here in the middle of the plate,” he said, “it has to start, like, here.”
Refsnyder drew a spot in the dirt three or four feet in front of the plate and behind where a right-handed batter would stand. It was a pitch that would start, as Refsnyder put it, “behind my ass,” and cross the plate as if the shortstop threw it.
Refsnyder can drive that pitch to left-center, but gearing it up, he explained, requires that he lay off any pitch on the outer half, which leaves him vulnerable to an inside sinker that could drill him in the hip if he doesn’t recognize it early enough.
“If I pick a side of the plate here,” he said, drawing another spot on the outside, “then I want the sinker to come back and end up here.”
He put a dot on the outer half of the plate. Again, it was a pitch Refsnyder can drive, but when he looks for it, he gives up the inside slider and risks becoming Pitching Ninja punchline if he’s fooled by a sweeper.
“You’re looking at this window right here,” he said, drawing a line that’s unbearably precise, leaving most of the plate uncovered. That line is the loss of youthful innocence. It’s the vulnerability Refsnyder has learned to embrace in order to hit modern big league pitching.
“When I was younger and in the minor leagues, you could sit more middle and be in between a couple of different pitches,” he said. “Because the velocity was a little bit lower, and you could cover a couple of different things and be OK. Now, if you’re facing, like, (Bryan) Woo from Seattle, you’re going to look like an a— at some point in your three at-bats. His stuff is too explosive in, and for you to be on time for 97 to 99, you can’t cover 85 and below. It’s, like, impossible.”
Refsnyder has come to realize that he got to the big leagues trying to do the impossible. A fifth-round pick out of the University of Arizona, he rose through minor leagues with modest power and limited speed. His greatest strength was a balanced, all-fields approach, and Refsnyder took pride his ability to work an at-bat, draw some walks, and make contact on absolutely anything.
He made his debut with the New York Yankees in 2015, and seven years later, he was a career .224 hitter with six home runs, nine stolen bases and one full season’s worth of at-bats. Refsnyder was quality depth and little more as he bounced from New York to Toronto, Tampa Bay, Texas, Minnesota and eventually to Boston. Through all those organizations, multiple hitting coaches, and a variety of teammates, Refsnyder not only tweaked his swing, he also began to embrace a new way of thinking about his at-bats.
When Alex Rodriguez talked hitting, Refsnyder listened.
Sure, he could draw some walks, but Refsnyder didn’t have the speed to steal bases, and a passive approach was hindering his ability to take aggressive, impactful swing. He had a knack for making contact, but without a commitment to specific pitch types and locations, Refsnyder was generating weak flyballs and pointless groundballs.
By preparing for anything, he was doing damage against nothing, and it was wasting his career. He was 31 years old and on his way out of the game.
“As an industry we value hitting the ball hard and damage,” Refsnyder said. “So, if I’m not going to steal bases, and I’m not hitting the ball hard, I’m at home. That’s just the way it is.”
Refsnyder’s old approach might have worked wonders in a different era, but it made him easy prey in an age of widespread velocity and lab-created breaking balls.
“I think you see older-generation hitters seeing really bad swing and misses now, and they just think you’re swinging out of your ass,” Refsnyder said.
There was a time when Refsnyder might have agreed, but conversation after conversation forced him to think differently.
When he was with the Twins in 2021, Nelson Cruz told Refsnyder that he looked only for pitches he could crush, and if Cruz didn’t get one of those pitches, he made an out. Cruz was fine with that. Part of Refsnyder thought such an approach was nuts — why accept such vulnerability? — but Cruz was an MVP candidate with 400-plus home runs, while Refsnyder was a bench player trying to avoid the waiver wire.
Eventually, he came to see it this way: Some hitters are so absurdly gifted, they can hit anything at any time, but the mere mortals have to embrace their limitations and accept being exposed.
“Strikeouts are up because they have to be up,” Refsnyder said. “It’s so hard to take an aggressive swing and not lay off other pitches.”
Refsnyder signed his last minor-league contract in December of 2021. The Red Sox called him up the following April, and he’s been in the big leagues ever since, proving himself year after year. Last season, at 34, Refsnyder had the highest hard-hit percentage of his career, and his wRC+ against lefties was, yet again, among the 10 best in MLB.
“He knows he’s a good player,” Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story said. “And when he doesn’t do what he wants, you can see that it bothers him.”
The frustration comes with the territory, and Refsnyder doesn’t mind talking about it. In fact, he loves the conversation. Refsnyder talks hitting in the clubhouse, rehashes at-bats in the dugout, and draws pictures of pitches in the dirt. And every once in a while, one of those conversations will take him back to his early days at Yankee Stadium, when Refsnyder first got the big leagues and began the long process of understanding what it would take to stay there.
“You have to give up something to have good swings,” Refsnyder said. “That’s kind of what they were saying
dt
Re: The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason
When Alex Rodriguez talked hitting, Refsnyder listened.
Sure, he could draw some walks, but Refsnyder didn’t have the speed to steal bases, and a passive approach was hindering his ability to take aggressive, impactful swing. He had a knack for making contact, but without a commitment to specific pitch types and locations, Refsnyder was generating weak flyballs and pointless groundballs.
But those are so much better than strikeouts though right???
dt
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Re: The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason
I think contact hitting is contagious as opposed to having a lineup full of swing and miss guys. A healthy dose of both is a good remedy. But just having all strikeout hitters is not ideal.D-train wrote: ↑Thu Feb 05, 2026 2:02 pmThat is EXACTLY what I was saying about the absurd obsession with strikeouts. By focusing on limiting Ks you become a less productive hitter. It is so simple. But Jerry says Ks are bad to justify salary dumps after the 2023 season and everybody drinks the Koolaid. lolDonn Beach wrote: ↑Thu Feb 05, 2026 7:25 amI don't think that link will open so I copied it. I think it explains pretty well really how today's hitters have to sell out looking for certain pitches and swing hard at them. Refsnyder basically evolved into a hard swinger getting some success at the latter part of his career. He's less of a complete hitter but he's become a more productive hitter
Why a 34-year-old platoon bat just signed his biggest contract in the twilight of his career
Chad Jennings
By Chad Jennings
Dec. 23, 2025Updated Dec. 27, 2025
Around the batting cage at Yankee Stadium, the superstars talked hitting while the kid tried to keep up. Alex Rodriguez described the way he split the plate in half. Carlos Beltran explained a similar tactic. Brian McCann, too, had a method of picking his battles and maximizing damage.
Rob Refsnyder, fresh from Triple A, nodded along while a bunch of All-Stars described an approach that ran counter to everything Refsnyder tried to do at the plate. Refsnyder covered every pitch. He was hard to strike out. He was ready for anything. He considered it his greatest strength.
Split the plate in half?
“I kinda understood what that meant,” Refsnyder said.
A decade later, Refsnyder gets it, and it’s made all the difference.
On Monday, four months before his 35th birthday, Refsnyder signed a $6.5-million deal with the Seattle Mariners. It is, by far, the largest contract of his life, and it’s come in the twilight of his career. Refsnyder has never made more than $2.1 million in a season, and he’s spent much of his career playing on minor-league deals or else earning the big-league minimum.
But at an age when so many others are fading from relevance, Refsnyder has only now established himself as a player worth such a commitment.
He is, perhaps, less complete than he used to be, but he’s unmistakably more productive. Since 2022, among players with at least 900 plate appearances, Refsnyder ranks 40th in OPS, just ahead of Fernando Tatis Jr., Alex Bregman and Trea Turner. Almost all of his damage has come with a platoon advantage, but in an era when left-handed pitching is better than ever, Refsnyder has crushed lefties at an elite level.
OPS leaders vs. LHP since 2022 (400 PA)
Aaron Judge
586
1160
Yordan Alvarez
613
986
Paul Goldschmidt
642
973
Yandy Díaz
604
956
Jose Altuve
569
940
Ketel Marte
744
927
Rob Refsnyder
501
924
J.D. Martinez
411
920
Mookie Betts
707
919
William Contreras
644
917
“My swing-and-miss is probably up a good amount from earlier in my career,” Refsnyder said. “But for me to do anything, you have to make these educated guesses.”
He has to split the plate.
Refsnyder’s unusual career arc is about more than a single player’s rise to a late-30s payday. His transformation helps explain an entire industry’s shift in offensive approach. Refsnyder didn’t arrive in the big leagues overmatched so much as outdated. To adapt, he had to make more than mechanical adjustments. He had to overhaul his mindset and embrace his limitations.
In the middle of last season, Refsnyder stood in front of the home dugout at Fenway Park and drew pictures in the dirt. He used the handle of his bat to show pitch locations around a facsimile of home plate.
“For a sweeper or slider to end up right here in the middle of the plate,” he said, “it has to start, like, here.”
Refsnyder drew a spot in the dirt three or four feet in front of the plate and behind where a right-handed batter would stand. It was a pitch that would start, as Refsnyder put it, “behind my ass,” and cross the plate as if the shortstop threw it.
Refsnyder can drive that pitch to left-center, but gearing it up, he explained, requires that he lay off any pitch on the outer half, which leaves him vulnerable to an inside sinker that could drill him in the hip if he doesn’t recognize it early enough.
“If I pick a side of the plate here,” he said, drawing another spot on the outside, “then I want the sinker to come back and end up here.”
He put a dot on the outer half of the plate. Again, it was a pitch Refsnyder can drive, but when he looks for it, he gives up the inside slider and risks becoming Pitching Ninja punchline if he’s fooled by a sweeper.
“You’re looking at this window right here,” he said, drawing a line that’s unbearably precise, leaving most of the plate uncovered. That line is the loss of youthful innocence. It’s the vulnerability Refsnyder has learned to embrace in order to hit modern big league pitching.
“When I was younger and in the minor leagues, you could sit more middle and be in between a couple of different pitches,” he said. “Because the velocity was a little bit lower, and you could cover a couple of different things and be OK. Now, if you’re facing, like, (Bryan) Woo from Seattle, you’re going to look like an a— at some point in your three at-bats. His stuff is too explosive in, and for you to be on time for 97 to 99, you can’t cover 85 and below. It’s, like, impossible.”
Refsnyder has come to realize that he got to the big leagues trying to do the impossible. A fifth-round pick out of the University of Arizona, he rose through minor leagues with modest power and limited speed. His greatest strength was a balanced, all-fields approach, and Refsnyder took pride his ability to work an at-bat, draw some walks, and make contact on absolutely anything.
He made his debut with the New York Yankees in 2015, and seven years later, he was a career .224 hitter with six home runs, nine stolen bases and one full season’s worth of at-bats. Refsnyder was quality depth and little more as he bounced from New York to Toronto, Tampa Bay, Texas, Minnesota and eventually to Boston. Through all those organizations, multiple hitting coaches, and a variety of teammates, Refsnyder not only tweaked his swing, he also began to embrace a new way of thinking about his at-bats.
When Alex Rodriguez talked hitting, Refsnyder listened.
Sure, he could draw some walks, but Refsnyder didn’t have the speed to steal bases, and a passive approach was hindering his ability to take aggressive, impactful swing. He had a knack for making contact, but without a commitment to specific pitch types and locations, Refsnyder was generating weak flyballs and pointless groundballs.
By preparing for anything, he was doing damage against nothing, and it was wasting his career. He was 31 years old and on his way out of the game.
“As an industry we value hitting the ball hard and damage,” Refsnyder said. “So, if I’m not going to steal bases, and I’m not hitting the ball hard, I’m at home. That’s just the way it is.”
Refsnyder’s old approach might have worked wonders in a different era, but it made him easy prey in an age of widespread velocity and lab-created breaking balls.
“I think you see older-generation hitters seeing really bad swing and misses now, and they just think you’re swinging out of your ass,” Refsnyder said.
There was a time when Refsnyder might have agreed, but conversation after conversation forced him to think differently.
When he was with the Twins in 2021, Nelson Cruz told Refsnyder that he looked only for pitches he could crush, and if Cruz didn’t get one of those pitches, he made an out. Cruz was fine with that. Part of Refsnyder thought such an approach was nuts — why accept such vulnerability? — but Cruz was an MVP candidate with 400-plus home runs, while Refsnyder was a bench player trying to avoid the waiver wire.
Eventually, he came to see it this way: Some hitters are so absurdly gifted, they can hit anything at any time, but the mere mortals have to embrace their limitations and accept being exposed.
“Strikeouts are up because they have to be up,” Refsnyder said. “It’s so hard to take an aggressive swing and not lay off other pitches.”
Refsnyder signed his last minor-league contract in December of 2021. The Red Sox called him up the following April, and he’s been in the big leagues ever since, proving himself year after year. Last season, at 34, Refsnyder had the highest hard-hit percentage of his career, and his wRC+ against lefties was, yet again, among the 10 best in MLB.
“He knows he’s a good player,” Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story said. “And when he doesn’t do what he wants, you can see that it bothers him.”
The frustration comes with the territory, and Refsnyder doesn’t mind talking about it. In fact, he loves the conversation. Refsnyder talks hitting in the clubhouse, rehashes at-bats in the dugout, and draws pictures of pitches in the dirt. And every once in a while, one of those conversations will take him back to his early days at Yankee Stadium, when Refsnyder first got the big leagues and began the long process of understanding what it would take to stay there.
“You have to give up something to have good swings,” Refsnyder said. “That’s kind of what they were saying
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Re: The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason
I’m looking forward to watching Refsnyder’s at bats this year. That was a good read. Thought it was an overpay but sounds like a great student of plate discipline
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Donn Beach
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Re: The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason
There's some interesting stuff in there, our guy Nelson
Refsnyder seems to have been a fan favorite in Boston. I guess we can be concerned about our luck with 34 year olds.
“I think you see older-generation hitters seeing really bad swing and misses now, and they just think you’re swinging out of your ass,” Refsnyder said.
There was a time when Refsnyder might have agreed, but conversation after conversation forced him to think differently.
When he was with the Twins in 2021, Nelson Cruz told Refsnyder that he looked only for pitches he could crush, and if Cruz didn’t get one of those pitches, he made an out. Cruz was fine with that. Part of Refsnyder thought such an approach was nuts — why accept such vulnerability? — but Cruz was an MVP candidate with 400-plus home runs, while Refsnyder was a bench player trying to avoid the waiver wire.
Refsnyder seems to have been a fan favorite in Boston. I guess we can be concerned about our luck with 34 year olds.