Jude on the Naylor situation

[D-train]

3 of the times they hit 54% they didn't make the playoffs. 2 of them before his big speech....

It doesn't have a thing to do with a single season,

He literally said a team winning 54% of its games of a decade ALWAYS makes the playoffs. So surely if they win 54%+ in a season they would HAVE to make the playoffs right?

[Donn Beach]

3 of the times they hit 54% they didn't make the playoffs. 2 of them before his big speech....

It doesn't have a thing to do with a single season,

He literally said a team winning 54% of its games of a decade ALWAYS makes the playoffs. So surely if they win 54%+ in a season they would HAVE to make the playoffs right?

Huh?.. If given 10 years of chances to make the playoffs where you average 54% wins over those ten years the chances of making the playoffs at least once is 100% It's not really that big a deal, it be pretty damn hard not to.

[Donn Beach]

So I asked Google. His contention only applies to the most current WC era.

The most prominent example belongs to the Boston Red Sox from 1976 through 1985. During this exact 10-season stretch, they completely missed the postseason while winning 54.1% of their games (an overall record of 845–708)

. The Post-1994 Wild Card Era
Dipoto's logic heavily leverages the mathematical realities of the expanded postseason:

• The Baseline: A .540 winning percentage equates to roughly 87 to 88 wins in a standard 162-game season.

• The Probability: Since the wild card was introduced in 1994 (and further expanded to 12 teams in 2022), the average minimum threshold to clinch a postseason berth has trended right around 86 wins.

• The Objective: By engineering a roster designed to constantly hum along at a 54% baseline, a front office insulates itself from sudden, painful rebuilds. It relies on natural positive variance (e.g., hitting 90+ wins in a lucky year) to secure a division title, while trusting that even their "average" 87-win seasons will give them a strong coin-flip chance at a Wild Card spot.

Fucking AI is amazing, to think when he said it the difficulty of actually researching it. Now it takes a couple of minutes. And AI is only getting warmed up.

You think the mariners make a WS before AI exterminate us? Doesn't seem likely

[Donn Beach]

So I asked about the success of teams like the cards, guardians, Brewers and Braves that have accomplished it. This is the deal, I think it can be a successful approach but you have to actually accomplish it. Dipoto has yet to do that. That Dipoto is failing at it doesn't prove it doesn't work. The highlight being the key

When you look at franchises like the Cleveland Guardians, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, and St. Louis Cardinals, they serve as the ultimate proof-of-concept for Dipoto's math. Over the rolling 10-to-15 year windows, all four have hovered or excelled right around that .535 to .555 winning percentage mark.
Their success highlights exactly why this model works when executed properly:

1. The Power of "Never Rebuilding"
By aiming for a 54% baseline rather than tearing everything down for 100-loss "tanking" cycles, these teams maximize their opportunities. Because the baseball postseason is famously a high-variance tournament where the best regular-season team rarely wins, just getting there consistently is the real skill.

• The Atlanta Braves used this philosophy to build a sustainable machine, capturing a World Series title and making October a perennial expectation.

• The Milwaukee Brewers—frequently operating with lower payrolls—just wrapped up a historic 103-win campaign, demonstrating that a consistently stable foundation lets you explode for a monster season when the young talent hits all at once.

2. Extreme Efficiency vs. Massive Payrolls
What makes teams like Cleveland and Milwaukee so fascinating is that they achieve this elite stability without the luxury of Los Angeles Dodgers or New York Yankees budgets.

• The Cleveland Guardians recently crossed the historic 10,000 franchise wins milestone, remaining a fixture in the AL Central race by mastering pitching development and defensive fundamentals

That the wheels came off this season was not about the model. It was the underlying weaknesses in what dipoto had put together

[D-train]

It doesn't have a thing to do with a single season,

He literally said a team winning 54% of its games of a decade ALWAYS makes the playoffs. So surely if they win 54%+ in a season they would HAVE to make the playoffs right?

Huh?.. If given 10 years of chances to make the playoffs where you average 54% wins over those ten years the chances of making the playoffs at least once is 100% It's not really that big a deal, it be pretty damn hard not to.

Oh so he isn't saying the 54% teams make it every season he is saying they make it at least once a decade. LOL That is actually even worse.

Hey fans, good news! We guarantee we will have at least one playoff appearance a decade! lol

[Donn Beach]

He literally said a team winning 54% of its games of a decade ALWAYS makes the playoffs. So surely if they win 54%+ in a season they would HAVE to make the playoffs right?

Huh?.. If given 10 years of chances to make the playoffs where you average 54% wins over those ten years the chances of making the playoffs at least once is 100% It's not really that big a deal, it be pretty damn hard not to.

Oh so he isn't saying the 54% teams make it every season he is saying they make it at least once a decade. LOL That is actually even worse.

Hey fans, good news! We guarantee we will have at least one playoff appearance a decade! lol

Yeah, but to me what's interesting is how it actually applies. Teams that have actually achieved it have seen more success than a single playoff appearance. He was trying to project this sort of modern anylitcal approach that some teams have seen quite a bit of success with. We're going to be like those guys, but he's not. That's what I keep saying, it's a reasonable model, go execute it, he hasn't. He hasn't built the Braves or the Brewers

[D-train]

With the 54% model even if you make the playoffs every season of the decade you still are just 1 of 12 teams to make the playoffs. So you have a ~8% chance of winning the WS. 8% x 10 is 80%. Sounds pretty good but.

If you strive to win the WS every year you might only make the playoffs 5 of the 10 years but you are one of 4 teams that might win it so 25% x 5. Close to a lock to win one a decade.

[Seattle or Bust]

Fairly confident that he feels less secure in his role than ever.

They have another year like '26 and he's surely out.

When you start saying things like fans wouldn't be in the wrong to say I shouldn't have a job... that's pretty telling.

Hopefully that means a change to the strategy.

[mostonmike]

Just interpreting the 54% win ratio differently, it's 87.5 wins per season.

I think, and everyone surely must agree, that setting out your stall to average 87.5 wins per season is stupid beyond belief. Or even trying to average 87.5 wins over a long spell is equally ridiculous.

2026- 76
2025- 90 (playoffs)
2024- 85
2023- 88
2022- 90 (playoffs)

90 wins is the bare minimum target these days. The balanced schedule means you can't whip a team 17 or 18 times out of 19 any more.

100 win seasons
2023 - 3
2024 - 0
2025 - 0
2026 - 2

Teams with 91+ wins
2023 - 5
2024 - 7
2025 - 6
2026 - 6

[Donn Beach]

With the 54% model even if you make the playoffs every season of the decade you still are just 1 of 12 teams to make the playoffs. So you have a ~8% chance of winning the WS. 8% x 10 is 80%. Sounds pretty good but.

If you strive to win the WS every year you might only make the playoffs 5 of the 10 years but you are one of 4 teams that might win it so 25% x 5. Close to a lock to win one a decade.

What you have are a pair of probability situations. First the regular season and then the playoffs. I think that's my point. You shoot for a division championship on an annual basis. That puts you in the best possible position for the crap shoot that is making a WS. That to me is the Brewers model. It hasn't worked yet but I think it's got to be testing the laws of probability at this point. Shooting above that, committing to a WS on an annual basis runs the risk of over committing, getting saddled with under performing contracts and actually lessoninq your chances.

I see the Naylor situation as an over reach. The pressure of trying to get back to a championship game again without an answer for first base. You gamble on an overpay..