SOB's Real Off-Season Plan

[D-train]

Good thread guys. Amazing how much more pleasant and enjoyable this forum is when we check the animosity at the door.. Thanks.

[Big_Maple]

SOB - what I admire about you is the time you take to create your plans. They are well thought out and super detailed.

They are also (usually) super ambitious.

I like this plan - what's not to like? It fixes most or all of our holes and it jettisons most of our deadweight. But it is so ambitious that it will never happen. I would be surprised if the M's did any of these things - even half of them would be an ambitious offseason.

Please don't confuse "too many transactions so this plan is not feasible" with "these aren't moves the M's would like to make".

I also agree with DavidGee's analysis (for the most part). In particular, I don't think the Marlins are moving Otto. He's cheap and controllable and could be a guy they build their roster and franchise around. He looks to be that good. Why would they take an untested prospect? Why would they take a pitcher with one, maybe two years of control before they get super expensive? We are all pipe dreaming if we think he will be moved for prospects and an average pitcher like Kirby. They might look at a Kade Anderson or Ryan Sloan plus another top 25 prospect. But I don't think they would "settle" - I mean, they had a better season than we did last year. Why would they move a young, controllable marquee player?

[GL_Storm]

Great plan! I am now convinced that the Marlins would move Otto but agree with Gabe that two years of Arb 2 and 3 Kirby isn't what they are going to be looking for.

The other monkey wrench is Jerry deciding the his $100M former to 5 prospect is now no longer a SS but a platoon bat at 3B which puts his ceiling at about 1.5 WAR given our best hope for his bat is Cole Youngs high 600s OPS in 2027. That contract is going to look more and more fucking idiotic over time. Not Evan White bad but close...

I look at Strand or signings like him as insurance while Colt develops.

If he sticks at 3B and turns into a decent bat, great. Trading for a SS like Lopez also doesn't prohibit Emerson from playing SS down the road. It's just clear right now that they can't rely on Colt at the position if they have aspirations of winning a title.

As for Kirby, I don't think trading for Kirby is a stand alone move for them. They could trade off Alcantara for a decent piece back knowing that they now have Kirby under control for 2 years as a better investment of their $$ given Alcantara is owed $21M and that's essentially what Kirby is owed over the next 2 years.

I agree regarding Colt but don't think Jerry will. He will be blocked from SS for three seasons if Otto is healthy and performing.

I think it's a real test for DiPoto.

[GL_Storm]

The reason to focus on Otto Lopez is because 1) he's a perfect fit for the Mariners' needs, 2) the Marlins dangled him at the deadline, 3) the Marlins have a history of trading young players in their prime, 4) the Marlins have multiple shortstop prospects in their system, and 5) the Marlins don't pretend they're trying to win.

If the Marlins say no, they don't want to move him, or are asking too much, then you start looking at other targets of opportunity. SoB mentioned Joey Ortiz a few weeks ago, which I think is a solid idea. The Mariners could also look to the Yankees, where they seem to be favoring George Lombard Jr. at SS, potentially opening up a move of Anthony Volpe or Jose Caballero.

[D-train]

The reason to focus on Otto Lopez is because 1) he's a perfect fit for the Mariners' needs, 2) the Marlins dangled him at the deadline, 3) the Marlins have a history of trading young players in their prime, 4) the Marlins have multiple shortstop prospects in their system, and 5) the Marlins don't pretend they're trying to win.

If the Marlins say no, they don't want to move him, or are asking too much, then you start looking at other targets of opportunity. SoB mentioned Joey Ortiz a few weeks ago, which I think is a solid idea. The Mariners could also look to the Yankees, where they seem to be favoring George Lombard Jr. at SS, potentially opening up a move of Anthony Volpe or Jose Caballero.

And Ortiz and his 87 career OPS plus isn't going to block Colt if Colt can be healthy and productive....

[Big_Maple]

Fellas - I love the idea of Otto, but there is zero chance of it happening no matter how much we close our eye and will it to happen.

I think a better, more solvent alternative is to get Zach Neto. The Angels have new ownership, and they are set to tear it down and undo all of Arte Moreno's tomfuckery. They will need a couple of seasons at least to get up to speed. They may be willing to take an Emerson Hancock as well as a couple of prospects. The asking price would be much lower than Otto, and the Angels - unlike the Marlins - are not in a window of contention.

Neto set the Angels single-season home run record for a shortstop and joined elite AL shortstops with multiple 20-HR/20-SB seasons. He is a stud defensively, and he hits the ball HARD offensively, and he has speed on the basepaths. I am not sure why we are all so set on Otto when there are other guys who might be more get-able and are pretty much as good.

D-Train - you have access to MLBTV. What would be fair asking prices for these 2 guys? Am I off, here?

[GL_Storm]

Fellas - I love the idea of Otto, but there is zero chance of it happening no matter how much we close our eye and will it to happen.

I think a better, more solvent alternative is to get Zach Neto. The Angels have new ownership, and they are set to tear it down and undo all of Arte Moreno's tomfuckery. They will need a couple of seasons at least to get up to speed. They may be willing to take an Emerson Hancock as well as a couple of prospects. The asking price would be much lower than Otto, and the Angels - unlike the Marlins - are not in a window of contention.

Neto set the Angels single-season home run record for a shortstop and joined elite AL shortstops with multiple 20-HR/20-SB seasons. He is a stud defensively, and he hits the ball HARD offensively, and he has speed on the basepaths. I am not sure why we are all so set on Otto when there are other guys who might be more get-able and are pretty much as good.

D-Train - you have access to MLBTV. What would be fair asking prices for these 2 guys? Am I off, here?

I doubt the Angels would trade Neto but I suppose it's possible.

[Seattle or Bust]

Fellas - I love the idea of Otto, but there is zero chance of it happening no matter how much we close our eye and will it to happen.

I think a better, more solvent alternative is to get Zach Neto. The Angels have new ownership, and they are set to tear it down and undo all of Arte Moreno's tomfuckery. They will need a couple of seasons at least to get up to speed. They may be willing to take an Emerson Hancock as well as a couple of prospects. The asking price would be much lower than Otto, and the Angels - unlike the Marlins - are not in a window of contention.

Neto set the Angels single-season home run record for a shortstop and joined elite AL shortstops with multiple 20-HR/20-SB seasons. He is a stud defensively, and he hits the ball HARD offensively, and he has speed on the basepaths. I am not sure why we are all so set on Otto when there are other guys who might be more get-able and are pretty much as good.

D-Train - you have access to MLBTV. What would be fair asking prices for these 2 guys? Am I off, here?

Never say never. Storm did a good job listing the reasons why he might be available above.

Neto flys in the face of what the M's have said they want to commit to this offseason. He's a poor defender with limited range. Dipoto mentioned specifically needing to get more range at SS to convert on defense for a pitching staff that throws strikes and wants to play to their defense. He mentioned being dead last in double play conversion on balls in play that should have resulted in a double play very much stood out as a problem. Not to mention that he was in the bottom 15% of pretty much every swing-and-miss stat in '26. He struck out 215 times this year... last thing this offense needs is to add more K's.

If the M's want to add a defensive shortstop with some upside... they could possibly look to the Cardinals and Masyn Winn. He hasn't hit and the metrics don't really point in a positive direction for a leap with the bat... but he's a top-2 defensive SS in baseball.

[DavidGee24]

2. The Orioles have Jordan Westburg, Blaze Alexander, Coby Mayo, Gunner Henderson, Jackson Holliday, and Jeremiah Jackson all at 3B, SS, and 2B. They don't have enough roster spots to play all these guys. While Strand's bat flashed, he hasn't build up much trade value given it flashed over just 58 games games. The Orioles are in desperate need of OF help... as a whole they put up -1.5 bWAR as a unit and that includes Taylor Ward's 2.7 fWAR who is gone. I could see Raley being an enticing rebound candidate for them... + they need more lefties in their lineup. Even if Evans is an "unknown" he's still a former top-100 prospect with 6 years of control. Tommy John ain't what it used to be. And again, Strand has some value, but not a lot.

If you're the Orioles though, you want someone that you KNOW is going to perform. Raley has put up a -0.3 WAR the last two seasons. Banking on a guy to rebound after one bad year is one thing, but two? That's a bad idea for them. As for Evans, you'd probably want to see what he can do first when he comes back from surgery, as he was so-so at the MLB level and has been so-so in the minors.

[Big_Maple]

Never say never. Storm did a good job listing the reasons why he might be available above.

Neto flys in the face of what the M's have said they want to commit to this offseason. He's a poor defender with limited range. Dipoto mentioned specifically needing to get more range at SS to convert on defense for a pitching staff that throws strikes and wants to play to their defense. He mentioned being dead last in double play conversion on balls in play that should have resulted in a double play very much stood out as a problem. Not to mention that he was in the bottom 15% of pretty much every swing-and-miss stat in '26. He struck out 215 times this year... last thing this offense needs is to add more K's.

If the M's want to add a defensive shortstop with some upside... they could possibly look to the Cardinals and Masyn Winn. He hasn't hit and the metrics don't really point in a positive direction for a leap with the bat... but he's a top-2 defensive SS in baseball.

A quick Google search doesn't fully support these claims. He has mixed, but still consistent high marks for his defense. For offense, his chase rate is low but strikeouts are high. While his overall swing-and-miss numbers have increased as his power has developed, his raw plate discipline metrics are pretty good.