Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

[D-train]

Sodo on JK. It is like saying that D Train just needs to jump higher and soon he will be doing reverse Tomahawk jams on a 10 foot hoop.

Oh, man. Jarred Kelenic. I'm going to avoid getting too much into the conversation about his place on the team, whether you should be in his corner or not, and why I think you're being ridiculous if you aren't... wait, not getting into it. Today, let's try and focus solely on his STEAMER projections, and how they provide a bit of hope and optimism about the 2023 season.

2023 will be Kelenic's age-23 season, and I think there are a few big things to watch for outside of the standard stats. BABIP, but more importantly, K rate, BB rate, Hard hit %, and exit velo.


A guy is going to have a low BABIP, and likely a rough career, when he doesn't hit the ball hard. It's different when you have an insanely good eye and are a slap-type hitter. That's not Kelenic, and there aren't a ton of those guys around anymore, even though we might see a slight return to that with the base sizes increasing.

Kelenic HAS to start hitting the ball harder. I truly believe that. I'm a massive believer in him still, but an average exit velo of 86.0 mph would've been 236th out of 253 qualified hitters last season if Kelenic qualified. The hard-hit % (35%) was better, but 195th is still awful. Getting up to the league average for these two at 88.4 mph and 35.8% would increase his slash line by a big-time amount. There's a glimmer of hope in here still, as his hard-hit rate is a lot higher than his average exit velo, so we know he can still hit it hard when he gets to the ball.

[Sexymarinersfan]

I'd love to see Jarred post AAA numbers at the MLB level. But I'm not holding my breath. The fact that he has age on his side is my only reason for optimism with him anymore.

[GL_Storm]

Per my earlier post from the Seattle Times, I wonder about Randy Arozoerna. Might he be a pretty close second to landing Reynolds? He’d have 4 years if team control - given that, and his offensive potential, would he be a good get?

Here’s a potential trade proposal:

https://sodomojo.com/2022/12/07/mariner ... arozarena/

I like it and he is a RH bat so fits that inane bill. That is a reasonable trade proposal and shows how absurd Morosi's suggestion was for BR.

So people don't have to click over, the proposal is Randy Arozarena for Flexen, JK, Hancock, and Bryce Miller.

It's a reasonable trade. I'd really like them to try and keep Miller. I think he'll be a top 50 prospect by mid-season. But I would probably do it.

[GL_Storm]

Here's an article on mlbtr about teams slated to pay the luxury tax in 2023: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/ ... -2023.html

At the bottom of the article is a section on teams that are just under the lowest threshold, which is mainly the Dodgers, and the speculation is that they're trying to duck under the threshold so that they can go into 2024 as first time CBT payers. The problem is that they're right at the line and the estimate has a margin of error because of their arb guys. Spotrac, for instance, puts them just over the line.

All of that to say this: if the Dodgers are serious about staying under the CBT in 2023, they're probably going to have to move a few guys to give themselves some buffer. I don't think they'll move any of their big salaries, but more likely one or two of their arb guys.

Here are the Dodgers Arb eligible players:

Julio Urias, SP, Arb 4
Walker Buehler, SP, Arb 3
Will Smith, C, Arb 1
Anthony Gonsolin, SP, Arb 1
Dustin May, SP, Arb 1
Caleb Ferguson, RP, Arb 2
Trayce Thompson, CF, Arb 1
Evan Phillips, RP, Arb 1
Yency Almonte, RP, Arb 2
Brusdar Graterol, RP, Arb 1

I don't know these players all that well. Some of them are names and if they get moved, it will be part of a big deal. Some of these other guys are lesser known though and could probably be moved fairly easily and replaced with a minimum salary player. Trayce Thompson, for example would fit that category. Maybe Dustin May? They only need to shave some salaries, not do a wholesale salary dump.

Anyway, I think this is kind of interesting. There are a few different ways it could affect the Mariners, depending on which players get moved, if that happens at all.

[D-train]

I'd love to see Jarred post AAA numbers at the MLB level. But I'm not holding my breath. The fact that he has age on his side is my only reason for optimism with him anymore.

He certainly is still relative you but what will have to happen to his mind, body and soul to significantly positively impact his performance in April from when he was totally over matched in Late Sept and Oct. What will happen in those six months that hasn't happened yet? ST PAs vs. more minor league pitching?

[Sexymarinersfan]

I'd love to see Jarred post AAA numbers at the MLB level. But I'm not holding my breath. The fact that he has age on his side is my only reason for optimism with him anymore.

He certainly is still relative you but what will have to happen to his mind, body and soul to significantly positively impact his performance in April from when he was totally over matched in Late Sept and Oct. What will happen in those six months that hasn't happened yet? ST PAs vs. more minor league pitching?

It frustrates me to know end seeing him rake at AAA. I mean he's an All-Star at that level. It took Nellie until he was 28 before he figured it out. Unfortunately Kelenic doesn't have that much time. I don't know what he needs to do, but last offseason him and McGwire were tinkering with his overall swing and approach. It did seem like he was more selective during his last call up. And I liked the fact that he wasn't hunched over like the first time he got called up.

[GL_Storm]

I'd love to see Jarred post AAA numbers at the MLB level. But I'm not holding my breath. The fact that he has age on his side is my only reason for optimism with him anymore.

He certainly is still relative you but what will have to happen to his mind, body and soul to significantly positively impact his performance in April from when he was totally over matched in Late Sept and Oct. What will happen in those six months that hasn't happened yet? ST PAs vs. more minor league pitching?

It frustrates me to know end seeing him rake at AAA. I mean he's an All-Star at that level. It took Nellie until he was 28 before he figured it out. Unfortunately Kelenic doesn't have that much time. I don't know what he needs to do, but last offseason him and McGwire were tinkering with his overall swing and approach. It did seem like he was more selective during his last call up. And I liked the fact that he wasn't hunched over like the first time he got called up.

It might simply be a confidence issue. Hard to say. But that's one reason I felt like, with this particular player, more time at AAA would have made the most sense. Some players can shake failure off, but I think JK carries it with him and the best cure for that would have been more time and a higher level of mastery of AAA pitching. That's also why I feel like 4th outfielder is the best major league role for him, if he is going to be at the ML level. But we'll see if the platoon works, which is a similar concept.

[Donn Beach]

Is Ohtani allowed to negotiate an extension? Seeing as how MLB teams were only allowed to pay him peanuts om his first contract?

He is a FA after season, so yeah

Interesting on why teams were only allowed to pay him so much when originally trying to sway him. Why not just offer him an extension then?

He has indicated a lack of excitement at this point with signing an extension with the angels. Says he wants to play for a winner

[D-train]

Confidence. yeah he's confident against Bad pitching and he Lacks confidence against good pitching makes sense

[GL_Storm]

He certainly is still relative you but what will have to happen to his mind, body and soul to significantly positively impact his performance in April from when he was totally over matched in Late Sept and Oct. What will happen in those six months that hasn't happened yet? ST PAs vs. more minor league pitching?

It frustrates me to know end seeing him rake at AAA. I mean he's an All-Star at that level. It took Nellie until he was 28 before he figured it out. Unfortunately Kelenic doesn't have that much time. I don't know what he needs to do, but last offseason him and McGwire were tinkering with his overall swing and approach. It did seem like he was more selective during his last call up. And I liked the fact that he wasn't hunched over like the first time he got called up.

It might simply be a confidence issue. Hard to say. But that's one reason I felt like, with this particular player, more time at AAA would have made the most sense. Some players can shake failure off, but I think JK carries it with him and the best cure for that would have been more time and a higher level of mastery of AAA pitching. That's also why I feel like 4th outfielder is the best major league role for him, if he is going to be at the ML level. But we'll see if the platoon works, which is a similar concept.

The Nelson Cruz comp makes some sense. He had several years where he was an up/down player, putting up very good AAA numbers and not nearly as good with the major league club. Though his ML numbers in those years were much better than JK's, it was a much easier offensive environment at that time as well. Most clubs in those years didn't have the deep rotations and deep bullpens that teams have today. You really have to hand it to Cruz for his work ethic and continuing to try to improve. It must have been pretty frustrating at times. I don't know if he'll get signed this year, but if not I wish the M's would try to bring him on as a coach if JD hasn't completely alienated him.