The slightly too early trade deadline thread

[Seattle or Bust]

He was asked by his boss to come up with a trade

We then asked the MLB.com writers covering those teams to make an educated guess as to what a return package might look like.

Sounds like he asked Jim Bowden.

Could be the dumbest guess of all time for what it would take to trade for Ohtani.

There's no way that's an "educated" guess.

[Big_Maple]

The Seattle Times had 3 trade proposals for the M's. The article is behind a paywall, but here are the 3 proposals (link to original article in case anyone wants to read the whole thing)

Proposal No. 1
Mariners send RHP Paul Sewald to Tampa Bay Rays for INF Osleivis Basabe (Triple-A) and RHP Marcus Johnson (Low-A).
No one wants to see Sewald go. He’s been the anchor of Seattle’s bullpen for the past three seasons and a key figure in their playoff push last season. But the Mariners’ front office, two years after trading away Kendall Graveman before the deadline, can’t ignore the fact that Sewald is a 33-year-old reliever at the peak of his value. If they can get a legitimate return for him, they’ll do it. Basabe, the Rays’ No. 6-ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline, is a versatile infielder with good on-base skills who could be the long-term answer the Mariners have been looking for at second base.

Proposal No. 2
Mariners send RHP Walter Ford (Rookie league) and RHP Travis Kuhn (Double-A) to New York Mets for 2B Jeff McNeil.
McNeil is the kind of contact hitter the Mariners sorely need in their lineup. McNeil, you might recall, was one of the Mariners’ initial targets in the Robinson Cano-Edwin Diaz trade in 2018 (with Jarred Kelenic, of course, the centerpiece of the return). McNeil won the NL batting title last year and then signed a four-year, $50-million deal to return to the Mets. At 31, he’s having a down year (.248 average, .646 OPS), but the Mariners might just see that as an opportunity to buy low.

Proposal No. 3
Mariners send RHP Emerson Hancock (Double-A) to St. Louis Cardinals for OF Dylan Carlson.
The Cardinals have a surplus of outfielders and need pitching. The Mariners have pitching depth and could use an outfielder. Carlson, a switch-hitting 24-year-old, is a former top prospect who hasn’t been able to put it together at the major-league level. Perhaps a change of scenery would serve him well.

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mar ... -deadline/

[Seattle or Bust]

The Seattle Times had 3 trade proposals for the M's. The article is behind a paywall, but here are the 3 proposals (link to original article in case anyone wants to read the whole thing)

Proposal No. 1
Mariners send RHP Paul Sewald to Tampa Bay Rays for INF Osleivis Basabe (Triple-A) and RHP Marcus Johnson (Low-A).
No one wants to see Sewald go. He’s been the anchor of Seattle’s bullpen for the past three seasons and a key figure in their playoff push last season. But the Mariners’ front office, two years after trading away Kendall Graveman before the deadline, can’t ignore the fact that Sewald is a 33-year-old reliever at the peak of his value. If they can get a legitimate return for him, they’ll do it. Basabe, the Rays’ No. 6-ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline, is a versatile infielder with good on-base skills who could be the long-term answer the Mariners have been looking for at second base.

Proposal No. 2
Mariners send RHP Walter Ford (Rookie league) and RHP Travis Kuhn (Double-A) to New York Mets for 2B Jeff McNeil.
McNeil is the kind of contact hitter the Mariners sorely need in their lineup. McNeil, you might recall, was one of the Mariners’ initial targets in the Robinson Cano-Edwin Diaz trade in 2018 (with Jarred Kelenic, of course, the centerpiece of the return). McNeil won the NL batting title last year and then signed a four-year, $50-million deal to return to the Mets. At 31, he’s having a down year (.248 average, .646 OPS), but the Mariners might just see that as an opportunity to buy low.

Proposal No. 3
Mariners send RHP Emerson Hancock (Double-A) to St. Louis Cardinals for OF Dylan Carlson.
The Cardinals have a surplus of outfielders and need pitching. The Mariners have pitching depth and could use an outfielder. Carlson, a switch-hitting 24-year-old, is a former top prospect who hasn’t been able to put it together at the major-league level. Perhaps a change of scenery would serve him well.

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mar ... -deadline/

Trade 1: MLBTV highlighted a similar trade about a month ago and I tore it to shreds in the comments. It eventually ended with like a -40 like ratio on the M's return. Basabe is no better than Cabby... a .425 slugging % in AAA is terrible and he projects as a 10-homer ceiling guy. Just go get Justin Foscue instead if you're gonna trade for a 2B.

Trade 2: I mean sure? But I don't see the Mets selling him... why would they? $12.5 million a year is a steal for a guy who has .300/.370/.430 potential. Brandon Lowe makes more sense from the Rays as he's probably way more available and he's got more boom potential than McNeil.

Trade 3: Reminds me of the JP Crawford trade. I really would rather stop taking on busts who we hope become good at age 28. We're not in rebuild mode anymore.

[Big_Maple]

Trade 1: MLBTV highlighted a similar trade about a month ago and I tore it to shreds in the comments. It eventually ended with like a -40 like ratio on the M's return. Basabe is no better than Cabby... a .425 slugging % in AAA is terrible and he projects as a 10-homer ceiling guy. Just go get Justin Foscue instead if you're gonna trade for a 2B.

Trade 2: I mean sure? But I don't see the Mets selling him... why would they? $12.5 million a year is a steal for a guy who has .300/.370/.430 potential. Brandon Lowe makes more sense from the Rays as he's probably way more available and he's got more boom potential than McNeil.

Trade 3: Reminds me of the JP Crawford trade. I really would rather stop taking on busts who we hope become good at age 28. We're not in rebuild mode anymore.

All of this makes sense. I don't have a strong opinion on any of this since I am not sure whether the M's should be in buy or sell mode. They are sitting at .500 with no indication that the team has saved their best for the second half of the season. All of this points to a partial sell as opposed to a rebuild, fire sale.

Then again, I think some trade for young, controllable bats - esp. at 2B and DH - could be setting us up for 2024. There doesn't appear to be (m)any viable options at either position in FA next year, so maybe trade now. Or during the offseason. Whatever.

JD has gone on record recently saying that they were not going after an impact bat before the trade deadline ("We’ve not really separated ourselves in a meaningful way to be aggressive on the buying end,”) But then again, he equivocates nicely by saying the M's could be sellers (“We are always one foot in the camp of buyer and one foot in the camp of the seller, believing that the best way to approach any trade deadline is with the mindset of, how do we make the Mariners better?”).

Either way, I don't think Mark Canha is either a short or a long term option.

[Seattle or Bust]

Trade 1: MLBTV highlighted a similar trade about a month ago and I tore it to shreds in the comments. It eventually ended with like a -40 like ratio on the M's return. Basabe is no better than Cabby... a .425 slugging % in AAA is terrible and he projects as a 10-homer ceiling guy. Just go get Justin Foscue instead if you're gonna trade for a 2B.

Trade 2: I mean sure? But I don't see the Mets selling him... why would they? $12.5 million a year is a steal for a guy who has .300/.370/.430 potential. Brandon Lowe makes more sense from the Rays as he's probably way more available and he's got more boom potential than McNeil.

Trade 3: Reminds me of the JP Crawford trade. I really would rather stop taking on busts who we hope become good at age 28. We're not in rebuild mode anymore.

All of this makes sense. I don't have a strong opinion on any of this since I am not sure whether the M's should be in buy or sell mode. They are sitting at .500 with no indication that the team has saved their best for the second half of the season. All of this points to a partial sell as opposed to a rebuild, fire sale.

Then again, I think some trade for young, controllable bats - esp. at 2B and DH - could be setting us up for 2024. There doesn't appear to be (m)any viable options at either position in FA next year, so maybe trade now. Or during the offseason. Whatever.

JD has gone on record recently saying that they were not going after an impact bat before the trade deadline ("We’ve not really separated ourselves in a meaningful way to be aggressive on the buying end,”) But then again, he equivocates nicely by saying the M's could be sellers (“We are always one foot in the camp of buyer and one foot in the camp of the seller, believing that the best way to approach any trade deadline is with the mindset of, how do we make the Mariners better?”).

Either way, I don't think Mark Canha is either a short or a long term option.

Agreed.

I'm not sure why the M's can't make a bigger trade that works for '23 and the future. Augment getting impact players in trades because lord knows we won't be doing that in free agency.

Trade for Brandon Lowe and Nolan Arenado.

Take on some payroll and add the impact we need.

[TraderGary]

Doesn't seem like we need anything but big fish.

We have enough role players. Enough utility players. Enough guys that can bat 5th or 6th in the lineup. We're missing the guys who should actually be hitting 3 and 4 in the lineup.

The depth is there. The impact is not. A guy like Mark Canha isn't going to do anything.

What we need is two impact players that between them can add 8 wins to the team.

The problem is our best players have been Caballero (5+ WAR pace) and Mike Ford (60 HR pace) and they're the two that Dipoto's dumbass will even consider replacing.

100% this

[D-train]

He is actually married to a woman that is better looking that Mike Trout or Kris Bryant's wife.

https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1GC ... Sj-FO8VOcM

[bpj]

He is actually married to a woman that is better looking that Mike Trout or Kris Bryant's wife.

https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1GC ... Sj-FO8VOcM

Wow nice work by the big man!

[Pharmabro]

I am thinking about circling back to Tampa and Lowe.
I thought it made a good pair in the off-season.

In the 12 games he has been back he has a .753 OPS and in 62 games this year he is at a 97 OPS+ and 0.9 WAR
He is not super cheap after this year 5.3M prorated, He jumps to 8.75: Team options 10.5, and 11.5 for ages He is 28 so 29,30, 31.
That back is concerning to say the least. But, realistically he is a guy that could find himself in the MVP race if fully healthy. IN only 2 of his years has he been a healthy player 2020 56/60, 2021 149/162, he was top 10 in MVP both years. (140 and 152 OPS+)
His value on MLB trade calc is 13M

The Rays top 3 prospects are SS, and 2X 2B/3B prospects.

Tampa has
3B Isaac Paredes 137 OPS+ 24 years old
SS Wander Franco 118 OPS+ 4.3 WAR so far

TB Ray's catcher suck and they have no high ranked catchers .
SO the return could be either or both
Ford C M's #1 21M
Or
Murphy 141 OPS + catchers are more valuable then the listed 1.4 M on trade calc. With Murphy I would think the M's are sending maybe 1 or 2 prospects in the top 30 but not premium ones.

With Ford the Rays are sending 1 their top 10 sweetener.

This would be a super risky trade. The values of Lowe could have a huge spam of ranges. It is just something to think about.

[GL_Storm]

I am thinking about circling back to Tampa and Lowe.
I thought it made a good pair in the off-season.

In the 12 games he has been back he has a .753 OPS and in 62 games this year he is at a 97 OPS+ and 0.9 WAR
He is not super cheap after this year 5.3M prorated, He jumps to 8.75: Team options 10.5, and 11.5 for ages He is 28 so 29,30, 31.
That back is concerning to say the least. But, realistically he is a guy that could find himself in the MVP race if fully healthy. IN only 2 of his years has he been a healthy player 2020 56/60, 2021 149/162, he was top 10 in MVP both years. (140 and 152 OPS+)
His value on MLB trade calc is 13M

The Rays top 3 prospects are SS, and 2X 2B/3B prospects.

Tampa has
3B Isaac Paredes 137 OPS+ 24 years old
SS Wander Franco 118 OPS+ 4.3 WAR so far

TB Ray's catcher suck and they have no high ranked catchers .
SO the return could be either or both
Ford C M's #1 21M
Or
Murphy 141 OPS + catchers are more valuable then the listed 1.4 M on trade calc. With Murphy I would think the M's are sending maybe 1 or 2 prospects in the top 30 but not premium ones.

With Ford the Rays are sending 1 their top 10 sweetener.

This would be a super risky trade. The values of Lowe could have a huge spam of ranges. It is just something to think about.

I like your posts but they often take some deciphering. I wish you would consider how readable you are before clicking on the submit button.

In this case I'm wondering who is "Ford C #1 21M"? Is that Harry Ford? Is the "C" supposed to mean that the player is a Catcher and the "#1" that he was a first round draft pick? What is the "21M"? Is it really so hard to just write the player's name?

Anyway, if you're suggesting giving up anything of value for Brandon Lowe, I think that's a mistake. Lowe should be highly gettable for the simple reason that he hasn't been very productive for 2 seasons now and he's currently sporting a .207 BA, and the Rays are on the hook for his moderate salary next year, which to them is probably an issue. I suspect this is more of an offseason deal but I guess it could happen at the deadline. Maybe you give up Robert Perez Jr. for him, or something like that. Maybe Juan Pinto. Even if you're down on Harry Ford right now, you don't give him up for a player that might not be playing ball a year from now. That's just stupid.

As for whether Lowe is a good move to make, I would say maybe. But I think there are probably better opportunities out there, especially if you're willing to give up Harry Ford, which I would rather they not do but they aren't consulting me on these matters.