The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason

[D-train]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Fc8HzbiRib8

Who knew he would hit almost .400 one day! lol

[D-train]

Skubal wins his case.

[bpj]

Rob Refsnyder is a black hole? Kind of a interesting article on him. It's got some insight into hitting, particularly swinging hard

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/691243 ... atoon-bat/

"Mitch Garver is a black hole? He had a .938 OPS vs. LHP last season!"

"AJ Pollock's a black hole? He had a .935 OPS vs. LHP last season!"

Yeah, they're not black holes until they come to the Mariners, then they fall off the planet, as one could expect when getting sporadic starts against left handed starters.

He's obviously not destined to be a black hole. But history's not on our side on the aging bats Dipoto has added.

[Michael K.]

I think some people commonly mistake comparing this upcoming team to last year's final playoff squad. I think that is an error. I'd argue what they should be comparing it to is last year's Opening Day roster. That to me is a more accurate measurement in terms of how far we've come. In season additions can be made all the way up to the Trade Deadline along with promotions from the minors. I like where this team is at currently. Just having a healthy Starting 5 again with healthy seasons from Gilbert, Kirby, and Miller alone should be a major boost.

Yeah I disagree with that. We ended the season with $167M in payroll. Our current payroll is $162M which is the same as our 2018 payroll EIGHT years ago. $162M in 2018 is about $215M in 2026 dollars. There is no reason we couldn't have added a proven reliever and Okamoto to play 3B and DH. Having a lower payroll than when you ended the previous season when you are trying to get to your 1st WS in 50 seasons is inexcusable. By waiting until the deadline you are missing out on all the guys that were available in the offseason that won't be available at the trade deadline (like Polanco) AND you one get two months of impact instead of a full season. Just an idiotic strategy.

The other problem with that is you are banking on catching lightening in a bottle again at the Trade Deadline. Not that many times guys like Naylor and Suarez have both been available to come fix an ailing offense.

[bpj]

$115M for 3 years of Framber Valdez....

$45M for Jorge Polanco...

Ok, forget it. Dipoto's strategy definitely beats buying into that market.

There were still low cost floaters available like Moncada or Arraez, but at least there aren't any obvious black holes besides Refsnyder and Young.

And maybe this is the year the clubhouse vet won't roll over and die.

Young had some flashes. Or Emerson if they want to rush another kid up.

The black holes aren't quite as massive this season, so that's good. With the trade deadline another chance to course correct, if needed.

No doubt this should be a contender though. Especially after we witnessed how much the league competition has fallen off the last few years.

Reason for optimism. Finally. Lol

I think some people commonly mistake comparing this upcoming team to last year's final playoff squad. I think that is an error. I'd argue what they should be comparing it to is last year's Opening Day roster. That to me is a more accurate measurement in terms of how far we've come. In season additions can be made all the way up to the Trade Deadline along with promotions from the minors. I like where this team is at currently. Just having a healthy Starting 5 again with healthy seasons from Gilbert, Kirby, and Miller alone should be a major boost.

I actually think we were pretty fortunate last season not having more injuries. No reason to bet that this year they'll have fewer. It's part of the game Dipoto should be planning for, but instead he leaves the MLB roster two players short, with even less depth available in the minor leagues.

[bpj]

Robles, Rivas, Refsnyder and Knitzer are the only players acquired as free agents on this roster. That seems pretty crazy.

[D-train]

I think some people commonly mistake comparing this upcoming team to last year's final playoff squad. I think that is an error. I'd argue what they should be comparing it to is last year's Opening Day roster. That to me is a more accurate measurement in terms of how far we've come. In season additions can be made all the way up to the Trade Deadline along with promotions from the minors. I like where this team is at currently. Just having a healthy Starting 5 again with healthy seasons from Gilbert, Kirby, and Miller alone should be a major boost.

Yeah I disagree with that. We ended the season with $167M in payroll. Our current payroll is $162M which is the same as our 2018 payroll EIGHT years ago. $162M in 2018 is about $215M in 2026 dollars. There is no reason we couldn't have added a proven reliever and Okamoto to play 3B and DH. Having a lower payroll than when you ended the previous season when you are trying to get to your 1st WS in 50 seasons is inexcusable. By waiting until the deadline you are missing out on all the guys that were available in the offseason that won't be available at the trade deadline (like Polanco) AND you one get two months of impact instead of a full season. Just an idiotic strategy.

The other problem with that is you are banking on catching lightening in a bottle again at the Trade Deadline. Not that many times guys like Naylor and Suarez have both been available to come fix an ailing offense.

Exactly, like I have said if the D Backs win just a few more games in the 1st half they aren't sellers and we miss the playoffs for the third season in a row because of weak ass off seasons.

[D-train]

Robles, Rivas, Refsnyder and Knitzer are the only players acquired as free agents on this roster. That seems pretty crazy.

Robles was after a mid season DFA and Rivas was a minor league FA. Even worse.

[Michael K.]

Exactly, like I have said if the D Backs win just a few more games in the 1st half they aren't sellers and we miss the playoffs for the third season in a row because of weak ass off seasons.

Yeah, but it got us to what, three innings from a World Series and saved them money over the course of the season? We all knew this is what they would do again.

The saving grace is this team should be better on Openning Day than last year's team. And maybe the Pitching will be better?

The problem is, I just don't see another Trade Deadline like that. I mean, that was literally the dream scenario. Left me wondering what would have happened if we had won a few more games early on? Would we have still made those moves, and then maybe had HFA? I actually think we would have made only one of those moves if we were a few games higher in the standings. We would have held on to our crown jewel, which is the Farm System that has generated so much post season success! LOL

[Sexymarinersfan]

$115M for 3 years of Framber Valdez....

$45M for Jorge Polanco...

Ok, forget it. Dipoto's strategy definitely beats buying into that market.

There were still low cost floaters available like Moncada or Arraez, but at least there aren't any obvious black holes besides Refsnyder and Young.

And maybe this is the year the clubhouse vet won't roll over and die.

Young had some flashes. Or Emerson if they want to rush another kid up.

The black holes aren't quite as massive this season, so that's good. With the trade deadline another chance to course correct, if needed.

No doubt this should be a contender though. Especially after we witnessed how much the league competition has fallen off the last few years.

Reason for optimism. Finally. Lol

I think some people commonly mistake comparing this upcoming team to last year's final playoff squad. I think that is an error. I'd argue what they should be comparing it to is last year's Opening Day roster. That to me is a more accurate measurement in terms of how far we've come. In season additions can be made all the way up to the Trade Deadline along with promotions from the minors. I like where this team is at currently. Just having a healthy Starting 5 again with healthy seasons from Gilbert, Kirby, and Miller alone should be a major boost.

Yeah I disagree with that. We ended the season with $167M in payroll. Our current payroll is $162M which is the same as our 2018 payroll EIGHT years ago. $162M in 2018 is about $215M in 2026 dollars. There is no reason we couldn't have added a proven reliever and Okamoto to play 3B and DH. Having a lower payroll than when you ended the previous season when you are trying to get to your 1st WS in 50 seasons is inexcusable. By waiting until the deadline you are missing out on all the guys that were available in the offseason that won't be available at the trade deadline (like Polanco) AND you one get two months of impact instead of a full season. Just an idiotic strategy.

You can disagree all you want, but our roster is head and shoulders better than where it was last year, as well as overall salary. Your right, we do have a lower team salary, as you say, "Inflation" from the 2018 to 2026, which means we have room to spend, substantially, theoretically! That doesn't change the fact that our ownership is cheap. As long as John Stanton and company are in office, this is how they are going to run their franchise. Sitting here wishing that they'd pony up to spend more money is a fantasy. I hear the same plea's on here every year. "If we'd only increase our budget!" It ain't happening. And yeah it sucks. They'll always have some excuse for coming in low, or not matching for whatever numerous reasons. But the fact remains, this is our cheapskate of an ownership group. Our moves have to be calculated to the nth degree just to keep up with the Dodgers and Yankees of the world, let alone other big spending ownership groups. Why haven't they increased the budget to match the inflation from years past you ask? Because they are tight wads. And I agree with most of what you said, like Polanco. Not a fan of Okamoto, not when we have prospects like Colt Emerson chomping at the bit to get playing time. And yeah, you're absolutely right about this being our window and opening up our pocket books. There has never been a better time to push all of your chips in. I at least feel better about beginning this year than where we started last season. There will be plenty of time to make moves during the season, IF we even need to.