$50 wins prediction contest

[BaseHitDerby]

My model is to just win!

[Michael K.]

If you were "thinking more bpj", why didn't you come out and straightforwardly say "bpj"? The White Sox shouldn't be a surprise given the fact that over the last three years they had prized prospects Eloy Hendricks and Luis Robert, developing.... ahead of the Mariners two outfielders, Kelenic and Rodriguez.... we are just a couple years behind them...I'm not sure this "60 game season" means much anyway, except arrested development for the Mariners prospects... We are presently in a tougher division and unfortunately the Mariner organization.... Manager, philosophy, broadcasting, analysts, draft strategy, etc... is pretty much unproven and pretty much a joke. We are in new territory, actually a rebuild, but there's every chance the M's will rush things and fuck it up, and continue to draft poorly....If we waste another top draft pick on a college pitcher this year..if we continue with a losing manager.. you will be in the grave before you see a playoff...we need a consistent philosophy, profession manager, and patience...

Yeah,I felt the same about this sixty game season. I was glad they didn't burn a year of control by playing Kelenic. Let's hope it doesn't slow the development too much. I kind of like this team and the direction.

And you are right about the division. I actually ended up predicting one more win that I wanted to, and a lot of that had to do with how the sixty games were structured. I thought playing our division that many times was going to be a killer for us. IMO, the Astros and Angels aren't as good as they should have been.

[BaseHitDerby]

They should punt offense at SS and C. Develop cheap minor leaguers that are only good at defense for those positions. Use 0 SPs by filling the entire pitching staff with 13 relievers that each make less than $3M/year. This will allow a pitcher to not have to face a lineup more than once in a game and a top-SP already costs around $30M/year. The team will use 5-7 relievers a games. Fill out the offense with 80% percent of the payroll. So on a $150M team payroll, only $30M will be on pitching (since relievers are cheap) and $120M on a good lineup. The average ERA between SPs and relievers in MLB is almost identical at 4.50. Therefore, it is a reasonable expectation for the relievers on the team to have an ERA around that mark. The offense will be loaded while the pitching will be adequate.

[bpj]

They should punt offense at SS and C. Develop cheap minor leaguers that are only good at defense for those positions. Use 0 SPs by filling the entire pitching staff with 13 relievers that each make less than $3M/year. This will allow a pitcher to not have to face a lineup more than once in a game and a top-SP already costs around $30M/year. The team will use 5-7 relievers a games. Fill out the offense with 80% percent of the payroll. So on a $150M team payroll, only $30M will be on pitching (since relievers are cheap) and $120M on a good lineup. The average ERA between SPs and relievers in MLB is almost identical at 4.50. Therefore, it is a reasonable expectation for the relievers on the team to have an ERA around that mark. The offense will be loaded while the pitching will be adequate.

I would have zero issues with this and would let my best guys go 3-4 innings per outing, 3-4 times per week.

Let them pitch starting in the 2nd inning to avoid the 5 inning win rule, and they're in line for a "Win" every day they pitch, even if they enter with a lead.

Catcher and SS are where I would forgive bad offense also. If I had to at all.

[D-train]

If you were "thinking more bpj", why didn't you come out and straightforwardly say "bpj"? The White Sox shouldn't be a surprise given the fact that over the last three years they had prized prospects Eloy Hendricks and Luis Robert, developing.... ahead of the Mariners two outfielders, Kelenic and Rodriguez.... we are just a couple years behind them...I'm not sure this "60 game season" means much anyway, except arrested development for the Mariners prospects... We are presently in a tougher division and unfortunately the Mariner organization.... Manager, philosophy, broadcasting, analysts, draft strategy, etc... is pretty much unproven and pretty much a joke. We are in new territory, actually a rebuild, but there's every chance the M's will rush things and fuck it up, and continue to draft poorly....If we waste another top draft pick on a college pitcher this year..if we continue with a losing manager.. you will be in the grave before you see a playoff...we need a consistent philosophy, profession manager, and patience...

Yeah,I felt the same about this sixty game season. I was glad they didn't burn a year of control by playing Kelenic. Let's hope it doesn't slow the development too much. I kind of like this team and the direction.

And you are right about the division. I actually ended up predicting one more win that I wanted to, and a lot of that had to do with how the sixty games were structured. I thought playing our division that many times was going to be a killer for us. IMO, the Astros and Angels aren't as good as they should have been.

Astros are getting destroyed by Karma. Altuve has 4 RBIs in the past 5 weeks.

[bpj]

One thing Lewis helps us see is that a guy with talent hopefully won't lose it by some time off.

We've had a long run of bad luck, Alex Jackson style.

[Donn Beach]

passive aggressive?...I was thinking more bpj actually, he is the one pushing how teams need to invest in a single major talent and then surround them with scrubs, believe this last White Sox off season in particular was presented as a case in point of poor spending, and yeah, thought you were basically in agreement. But go ahead and keep playing your dime store psychological card when you have nothing better to play. Yup, lets see if the Mariners can finally pull of making the playoffs before we are all in our graves...

If you were "thinking more bpj", why didn't you come out and straightforwardly say "bpj"? The White Sox shouldn't be a surprise given the fact that over the last three years they had prized prospects Eloy Hendricks and Luis Robert, developing.... ahead of the Mariners two outfielders, Kelenic and Rodriguez.... we are just a couple years behind them...I'm not sure this "60 game season" means much anyway, except arrested development for the Mariners prospects... We are presently in a tougher division and unfortunately the Mariner organization.... Manager, philosophy, broadcasting, analysts, draft strategy, etc... is pretty much unproven and pretty much a joke. We are in new territory, actually a rebuild, but there's every chance the M's will rush things and fuck it up, and continue to draft poorly....If we waste another top draft pick on a college pitcher this year..if we continue with a losing manager.. you will be in the grave before you see a playoff...we need a consistent philosophy, profession manager, and patience...

because I thought the opinion was held by more than just bpj, my point was it wasn't just directed at dtrain which seemed to be his take. In terms of the W Sox, as I remember it, Dipoto had the Mariners in their push for the playoffs mode his first couple seasons or so, and the W Sox had just tossed in the towel and blown up the team. I commented i would bet the W Sox get there first, and i have followed them along a bit. It was the same sort of thing with the Orioles when we traded for Bedard, that was the Mariners making a playoff push and the Orioles blowing things up, the Orioles beat them to the playoffs as well.

[D-train]

Donn and I needed that win. Even Gil still has a chance. Down goes Julio.

4 - Millikin OUT
17 - SH OUT
18 - AT OUT
19 - 57 OUT
20 - Sexy OUT
21 - TLO OUT
22 - CDA J OUT
23 - MK2 OUT
24 - Julio OUT
25 - PeterT 0-4
26 - David Gee 1-3
27 - DT 2-2
28 - Donn 3-1
29 - gil 4-0
30 - DMM OUT
31 - Bil OUT
32 - bpj OUT
33 ~ Hanjag OUT
34 - Moe OUt
35 - The Pro OUT
36 - BHD OUT
37 ~ rockycola OUT

[D-train]

This contest reminds me of the song. "Little by little we meet in the middle"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcuRWKeKGUE

[Sibelius Hindemith]

And you , sir, are dead center.